Arab League call for UN blue helmets unlikely to work

By Anne-Beatrice Clasmann Feb 14, 2012, 2:06 GMT

Istanbul - The Arab League's call for the United Nations to send its peacekeepers into Syria may appear to be a sign of energetic decisiveness, but continuing military operations by Damascus against the opposition reveal its impotence.

Firstly, the decision taken by Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Sunday was not unanimous, as Algeria - where the government is fearful of renewed domestic unrest and suspicious of all revolutionary movements - voted against the establishment of a Syrian peace group.

Lebanon, whose government is dominated by the Hezbollah movement - which in turn is allied to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad - rejected the Arab League decision in its entirety. Sources in Beirut said the decision was motivated in part by fear of reigniting religious tensions in Lebanon.

Secondly, Syria's eastern neighbour Iraq is thought to have voted for the resolution on purely pragmatic grounds, as it did not wish to appear isolated and believed the next session would not take place in Baghdad, as planned, if it voted against.

'That would mean that Qatar would continue to occupy the chair at all the meetings, something that al-Assad himself does not want,' a representative of the Iraqi List parliamentary grouping said.

The Damascus regime sees the Saudis and Qatar as the main players in a 'plot against Syria,' calling the Gulf monarchs hypocrites who aim to spread democracy to the Arab world while enjoying absolute power themselves - a sensitive point for many Arabs.

Salam al-Kawakibi, a Paris-based Syrian commentator, wrote in an analysis published in the Egyptian newspaper Al-Shorouk on Sunday that al-Assad had a clear dual strategy to counter the pro-democracy forces in Syria.

Fearful of a revolution dominated by the majority Sunni Muslim population, Syria's many minorities were likely to link their fates with that of al-Assad's regime. Meanwhile the Arab world and the wider international community was wary of a civil war erupting in Syria that could spill over into the entire region, according to the analysis.

'The Syrian leadership has been relatively successful when it comes to both of these scenarios,' Al-Kawakibi concluded.

Initially the protests were staunchly secular but, in the view of opposition figures, an increasingly strong Islamic aspect is resulting from the regime's brutal repression, coupled with the failure of the international community to act.

'Oh God, are you the only one that will come to our aid,' many young men cried in the beleaguered city of Homs over the weekend, as they filmed the shells falling on their homes.

'God is great,' chant protesters in Daraa and Hama to boost their courage. Most of them are Sunni, and their religion has become their main anchor in a swamp of impotence and despair.

The Sunni monarchs of the Gulf are content to see this. They supported conservative Islamic forces in Libya and Egypt last year, putting themselves forward as protectors of the wider Arab revolution, while at the same time cracking down on protests in their own countries.

And Iran, the arch-enemy of the monarchs, has been involved in the Syrian conflict from the outset, reportedly sending military advisers and fighters to buttress al-Assad.

Al-Qaeda has also attempted to jump onto the bandwagon, as it did in Libya, coming to the support of the opposition.

'Don't rely on the Arab League, since someone who has nothing can give you nothing. Don't rely on the West or on Turkey,' al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri said in a message to the opposition over the weekend.

Al Qaeda aims to present itself as the spearhead of the revolution, although this strategy appears to have achieved little in Libya. This is no guarantee that this will also be the case in Syria, particularly if the assault by government forces on residential neighbourhoods continues.

Thus far the Arab League's call for the blue helmets has come to nothing. As long as Russia and China continue to block all UN Security Council resolutions, there will be no UN troops on Syrian soil.

Nevertheless, the Arab League's decision is not completely ineffective, as both Moscow and Beijing would have difficulty in opposing the Gulf states in the long term.

While they may lack armies, the economic power the Gulf states are able to exercise through their investment funds is considerable.