ANALYSIS: Iran diplomacy could go ahead despite failed IAEA talks

By Albert Otti Feb 22, 2012, 16:59 GMT

Vienna - Western countries reacted with dismay Wednesday when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced a breakdown in talks with Iran over the country's alleged nuclear weapons programme.

But diplomats and experts said the setback was unlikely to stop plans for a new round of negotiations between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China.

'It is a failure. We are facing a serious situation,' a Western diplomat said about recent trips made by senior IAEA officials and which ended without Iran allowing them to visit suspect sites, interviews with nuclear officials and access to technical documents.

As the IAEA team returned empty-handed to Vienna on Wednesday, the six world powers were still pondering how to respond to a letter by Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saedi Jalili, in which he proposed a new round of multilateral talks to solve the nuclear stand-off.

Despite the failed IAEA missions, a diplomat said in Vienna that 'there is a momentum toward talks,' a view shared by another Western envoy.

'There are people in Western countries, including the United States, who want to see this crisis de-escalate. They don't want war with Iran,' said Mark Hibbs, a nuclear policy expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Recent statements by Israeli officials, and an increasing flow of media reports, have made the scenario of an Israeli attack to wipe out Iran's nuclear programme look more likely.

The six powers have offered Tehran improved political and economic ties in return for a halt of Iran's uranium enrichment plants. The most recent round of talks early last year in Istanbul ended without results.

Any revived negotiations could only be successful if Russia and China would use their closer ties to the Islamic Republic and get the country to cooperate with international nuclear inspectors, Hibbs said.

The unsuccessful IAEA-Iran talks might actually yield a positive outcome on that front, he added.

'What it may do is ramp up pressure on Russia and China to play a more constructive role than they have so far,' he said.

Ultimately, a breakthrough will not be achieved via political and economic incentives alone. What it needs is a decision by Iran's top leaders, who should realize that the price they are paying in terms of international sanctions is too high price to pay for their nuclear programme, Hibbs said.

Olli Heinonen, the IAEA's previous chief nuclear inspector, said: 'This is a complex situation with a mixture of internal and external politics, national security and pride. What is now needed is leadership, which takes Iran from the well which it is digging for itself.'

But even if Iran were to take the decision to cooperate, it would find it difficult to answer the IAEA's questions stemming from voluminous intelligence indicating an extensive nuclear weapons research programme.

'They can't answer all of the questions honestly, because to do so would be to admit complicity in nuclear weapons development work, for which they would then be further penalised,' Mark Fitzpatrick at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

However, Tehran might evade further punishments if its admissions come as part of a negotiation process that grants immunity for past guilt, he added.

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