Pakistan - a nuclear power on the brink of collapse? (Feature)

By Joachim Schucht Oct 28, 2008, 11:39 GMT

   Islamabad - Some feel reminded of Kabul, or even Baghdad in the most dangerous times during the insurgency. Since a truck loaded with 600 kilograms of explosives was rammed into the Marriott hotel near the National Assembly building five weeks ago and killed dozens, Pakistan's capital Islamabad has been on high alert.

   The barricaded government district increasingly resembles a no-go zone. Concrete blocks along Constitution Avenue slow cars down to little more than walking speed, with police checkpoints set up at short distances from each other. Heavily armed security forces patrol side streets.

   Officials plan to erect a 15-kilometre concrete wall around Pakistan's centre of power, sealing off the ministries, parliament, the Supreme Court and an enclave of foreign embassies.

   The presidential palace Aiwan-e-Sadr, now residence of President Asif Ali Zardari, has already seen a security upgrade.

   The offices of the scandal-tainted widower of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who was killed in a suicide gun-and-bomb attack in December, were moved to the third floor in an attempt to prevent sniper attacks. Doors and windows were reinforced by bulletproof glass.

   The boars that had been roaming the palace's grounds for food until lately fell victim to the new measures and were culled for security reasons.

   Fears about possible new terror attacks, particularly ahead of the US presidential elections, can be felt everywhere. The trip of German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who visited the red zone on Tuesday, was cut short to five hours, and an overnight stay was ruled out.

   Rarely do high-ranking foreign officials dare to visit Islamabad these days. Even the representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in talks with the Islamic nuclear power over preventing a threatening financial collapse, insisted on meeting with the Pakistani side in safer Dubai.

   And the bad news for this key nation in the fight against terrorism continues. Al-Qaeda fighters and their allied Taliban militants carry their fight into Pakistan's cities from the tribal areas straddling the Afghan border with increasing determination.

   Pakistan's army retaliates with airstrikes against suspected militant hotbeds, but seemingly lacks a discernible strategy. The US military, meanwhile, targets suspected terrorists in the tribal areas with unmanned drones, often without bothering to ask for Pakistan's approval.

   Frequent civilian victims of those attacks help increase the already substantial anti-American feelings among the population.

   'Pakistan is in the centre of a fireball, which could trigger one of the most dangerous crises in Central and South Asia since the attacks of September 11, 2001,' said Pakistani writer Ahmed Rashid.

   The nation of 160 million was additionally hit hard by the global financial crisis. Foreign currency reserves are only sufficient for a few weeks and financial collapse is looming large.

   Already the situation is dire. Hours of electricity blackouts and skyrocketing prices for staples like flour and sugar cause rising frustration among the population.

   According to the United Nations Food Programme, almost half of Pakistan's population, mainly in rural areas, is having trouble feeding itself. Observers fear that unrest, famines and even political anarchy are only a matter of time, especially with the onset of another winter.

   Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani admitted that the country's survival was on stake, the situation being 'without precedence' in many respects.

   The newly elected government in Islamabad is still squirming over whether to accept the harsh conditions attached to IMF aid. 'Time is running out, we cannot wait much longer,' said Shaukat Tarin, the country's chief economic counsel, after even close ally China refused to cough up some money.

   In a last-ditch attempt, Zadari plans to fly to Saudi Arabia to plead with the kingdom's leaders to help their fellow Muslims in Pakistan - a request Riyadh so far refused.