Obama's Afghan strategy is put to its first major test (News Feature)

By Can Merey Jul 2, 2009, 16:00 GMT

New Delhi - Nowhere in Afghanistan do the Taliban hold more sway that in Helmand, the opium-growing southern province which produces more narcotics than anywhere on earth - and fills the insurgents' combat coffers.

On Thursday, thousands of US soldiers began pouring into the region in order finally to bring it under the control of the Kabul government.

The operation, said the Washington Post, is the biggest offensive undertaken by US Marines since that of 2004 in Fallujah, Iraq.

At the same time it is the first major operation to be carried out under the presidency of Barack Obama, who is hoping that his fresh Afghanistan strategy will now turn events around in the Hindu Kush.

After years of over-optimistic claims by former president George W Bush, the Obama administration has recognised just how serious things have got in Afghanistan, and last month called a New York meeting of security experts who have leading roles in Obama's new strategy launched in the spring.

An internal memorandum from that meeting, seen by the German Press Agency dpa, says the United States 'may not be actually losing, but we are certainly not winning.'

The memorandum went on to say that successes had to be visible within the next 18 months, otherwise the governments and citizens of the international coalition forces in the region would all draw the conclusion that the situation was hopeless, and 'start agitating for a pullout.'

Should this prove the case, the memorandum continues, the sole remaining option would be a limited US programme involving anti- terrorism operations to keep the Kabul central government in power.

There was, however, 'no realistic hope' of such a programme ever leading to the sort of far-reaching economic and political change which is the final aim of the Americans in Afghanistan.

Even grimmer was the situation in neighbouring Pakistan, where the prospect of 'a total collapse' leading to a nuclear-armed jihadist- terrorist state could not be ruled out.

The hope in Afghanistan was that, with the deployment of an extra 21,000 US troops, there would be a general improvement in the situation.

Operation Khanjar (curved dagger) is the first test of Washington's new strategy. Its key points are not just increasing troop strength but also - crucially - civil reconstruction backed by security provided by the military.

At the same time there will be greater efforts to train Afghan security forces, so they can assume as quickly as possible the tasks still carried out mainly by foreign forces in the eighth year since the fall of Taliban rule.

Just how dependent local forces are on the help of international troops can be seen in the fact that, for the Helmand operation, just 650 Afghan security forces are involved compared with nearly 4,000 US Marines.

There is little doubt that sending in extra troops will lead to an escalation of violence before any stabilisation or even de-esclation of the situation in the region.

Already, Afghanistan is experiencing the most intensive phase of combat since the the the fall of the Taliban regime, according to the latest report delivered last week by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to the Security Council.

In May the number of 'security incidents' topped 1,000 a month for the first time, while in the first four months of the year their number increased by 43 per cent over the same period last year. A further increase in violence is expected.

The increase in troop strength is also needed in view of the upcoming August 20 election, according to Ban - who, however, was quick to warn that there must be no increase in civilian casualties which only serve to drive Afghans into the arms of the Taliban.

There was little surprise in the initial reaction of Taliban spokesman Qari Yussuf Ahmadi to the new offensive in Helmad - that the US troops would be attacking civilian targets.

Ban stressed that the military had to operate in a way that would not further distance the local population from the international community.