2009 YEARENDER: Pakistan turning into new battleground against al-Qaeda

Dec 31, 2009, 14:52 GMT

Islamabad - Asked what awaits Pakistan in 2010, experts and ordinary citizens give the same answer - more blood in the streets, more buildings levelled by bombs, and more Islamist massacres at mosques and schools, the same as in the waning year.

Little relief can be predicted for the militancy-hit Muslim nation of 160 million in the coming months, especially when the United States increasingly portraits Pakistan as the new home of al-Qaeda, and for that matter the new battleground.

In his declaration of revised policy to deal with growing insurgency in Afghanistan in early December, US President Barack Obama said the stakes were even higher in Pakistan where 'al-Qaeda and other extremists' were seeking nuclear weapons.

A few days after Obama's speech, in which he did not mention any specific plan to deal with threats out of Pakistan, unnamed US officials told the New York Times that the US president had quietly authorized an expansion of its covert war in Pakistan.

Under the plan, the CIA will widen its campaign of strikes against militants by unmanned drone aircraft in Pakistan, taking it beyond the country's tribal region to neighbouring south-western Baluchistan province where the Americans believe many leaders of the Islamist extremist Taliban - including one-eyed Mullah Omar - are hiding.

Pakistani authorities have struck a sceptical tone.

They mock the United States' 'AfPak' strategy as 'too much paper filled by desktop experts' with colourful, scientific terminologies that lack local knowledge and understanding, a deficiency that has brought 'the Americans to the brink of defeat in Afghanistan.'

Expansion of war, Pakistani authorities argue, may complicate Pakistan's fight against militancy, turning volatile the areas that were previously free of Islamist insurgency. It may in fact increase insurgent violence.

According to the Indian-based South Asia Terrorism Portal, at least 2,080 civilians and 968 security personnel have died in the terrorist violence in 2009.

'We are fighting militants but in our own way,' said an official with Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, citing examples of the two 'successful' offensives Pakistan conducted against Taliban in 2008.

Thousands of ground troops moved into the north-western Swat valley and its seven neighbouring districts in April 2008 to engage in what security officials later described as one of the toughest battles its troops have ever fought on its own soil.

Government forces regained control over the region after around 10 weeks, losing 550 soldiers and officers while eliminating around 2000 Taliban guerrilla fighters.

In a second operation in mid-October, around 30,000 soldiers suffering comparatively few losses (only 70 fatalities) forced some 10,000 Taliban fighters into the mountains or the districts neighbouring the militant's heartland of South Waziristan, one of the seven districts of the tribal region.

Combining the statistics from the two districts, Pakistan altogether killed 7,762 suspected militants in the 11 months to November in its country-wide campaign, according to data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

'The militancy was in its peak this year and so was Pakistan's response,' said Mehmood Shah, a defence analyst and a former security chief in Pakistan's tribal regions where the militants have gained control over a large swathe of territory.

'For years most of the Pakistanis had opposed use of force against the Taliban and (the terrorist network) al-Qaeda because they shared a faith with them,' said Shah.

'But public opinion has turned sharply against the militants early this year after indiscriminate suicide bombings that killed innocent women, children and elderly people.'

Although Washington and other western capitals have applauded the Pakistani assaults, they consider Pakistan's gains too little and too slow, given the fact that the offensives mainly target those Taliban who pose a threat mainly to Pakistan.

Many 'good' Taliban, as compared to the 'bad' Taliban who target Pakistanis, continue to benefit from the peace deals with the Pakistani government and military to target international forces across the border in Afghanistan.

This definitely irritates the United States which wants quick gains with the recently announced deployment of additional troops in Afghanistan before it starts a pullout in July 2011.

'We are moving piece by piece, definitely by first removing the elements that pose a threat to our internal security,' insisted an official at the Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, requesting anonymity.

'But we are also planning (to move) against those who are a threat to regional security,' he said. 'If we open too many fronts at the same time, we may risk losing at all of them.'

The analyst Mehmood Shah hopes that Pakistan could finish most of the job against the militants by the middle of 2010, if the United States trusts Pakistan and avoids much interference.

'If there were some confusion about the Taliban and al-Qaeda, they are dispelled now. Everyone knows they are animals and one cannot talk to them.'

'But if the Americans continue to interfere, this country is going to see more bloodshed and little success,' Shah warned, adding that the Western powers should focus more on Afghanistan to undo their past mistakes which have caused instability in the entire region.