Can Karzai's peace plan lure Taliban away from violence? (Feature)

By Farhad Peikar Jan 25, 2010, 5:04 GMT

Kabul - The Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai has said it will present a new peace plan to the conference on Afghanistan to be held in London later this week, aimed at offering money to Taliban fighters to renounce violence.

But in a brazen move in Kabul on January 18, Taliban bombers launched a massive attack on the heart of the city, killing five people and wounding 71 others, and called into question any plan aimed at bringing the militants in from the cold.

In addition, a lack of consensus inside the country on who could be part of the new reconciliation scheme has cast doubts on whether the plan would be successful, analysts have said.

Nevertheless the Afghan government intends to offer protection, jobs, vocational training and other economic incentives to thousands of Taliban who defect. It is said that the plan will even offer amnesty to some Taliban leaders.

According to Afghan officials, the government hopes to gain not only the support of more than 40 countries that will attend the London summit on January 28 for its plan, but also to attract up to one billion dollars from donor countries to fund the ambitious project.

President Hamid Karzai's spokesman, Waheed Omar, said that the government had learned from previous 'mistakes' in such programs and this time its reintegration efforts were more comprehensive and were widely supported by the international community.

The US administration has so far offered a cautious support for the new outreach efforts, but rejected the inclusion of the top insurgent leaders in the process.

Richard Holbrooke, US President Barack Obamas special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan hinted that some Taliban leaders' names could be removed from the UN's list of terrorist suspects, as the Afghans have suggested, but drew the line at absolving Mullah Omar, the Taliban's supreme leader.

'I can't imagine what would justify such an action,' Holbrooke said in Kabul last week.

According to Kabul University professor Nasrullah Stanikzai, some of Karzai's top government members, including his first vice president Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim and the Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum, who helped Karzai to get re-elected in the August polls, would find it very hard to share power with Taliban leaders.

'There is a lot of opposition from inside the country against the new peace plan,' he told the German Press Agency dpa.

Both Dostum and Fahim fought for years against the Taliban before the ultra-Islamist regime was ousted by the 2001 US-led invasion.

Following the fall of their government, the Taliban leaders escaped to Pakistan, from where they have controlled a bloody insurgency against the allied forces.

But despite widespread opposition to talks with Taliban leaders, Maulawi Arsala Rahmani, a member of the upper house of Afghanistans parliament, and who worked as religious affairs minister during the Taliban government said 'talk should be only with the leaders of the Taliban, because they are the ones who can make decision.'

'It would be a waste of time to target the low ranking Taliban, because they look to Mullah Omar as their supreme and spiritual leader' he said.

Although Taliban spokesmen have repeatedly rejected Karzai's peace initiatives in the past, Rahmani, who claims to have been in touch with insurgent leaders, including Mullah Omar, said, 'if they (Taliban) see honesty and firm will from the government and the American side, they will be ready for peace talks.'

Rahmani's idea was also echoed by a Western diplomat in Kabul, who said that there had been 'overtures' from the Taliban leadership recently.

'They are interested in talking, but they have concerns,' the official, who did not want to be named, said. 'Can they rely on the Americans not to ship them to Guantanamo? Will the Afghan government harass them?' he asked.

Although details have yet to be made public, Afghan officials have said that the new peace plan is expected to address the Taliban's concerns.

Waheed Muzhda, a political analyst and former Taliban official, said that the militants were unlikely to reconcile with government as long as they believe that they can finally win the war in the country. Over the past three years the fighters have set up their own shadow government, as they have regained control of more territory.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who visited India and Pakistan last week, said that the insurgent leaders would not come to the negotiating table unless they see 'a change in the momentum and begin to see that they are not going to win' the war.

Gates also said that while senior Taliban leaders were unlikely to reconcile with the government, the low-ranking ones, who fight for cash than ideology, could be open to making peace.