(eca055): For Pakistan, India is real threat, Taliban just an irritant (Feature)

By Sajjad Malik Apr 7, 2010, 11:45 GMT

Islamabad - Pakistan's security establishment, unmoved by the threat from homegrown Islamic insurgents, is to launch a training exercise this week focused on the scenario of a possible showdown with traditional rival India.

The country's powerful military is to launch exercise Azm-e-Nau (New Resolve) III to test the capacities of its men against a hypothetical Indian attack, and validate its security strategy.

The war game is the culmination of the new strategies discussed over a period of one and half years at various academic and operational levels, and will be the largest military exercise since 1989.

Director General Military Training (DGMT) Major General Muzzamil Hussain told reporters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi that the forthcoming exercise will 'focus on India.'

The exercise coincides with renewed efforts against Islamic militants, who last year moved to within 160 kilometres of the capital Islamabad.

They have been since pushed back to mountainous hideouts along the Afghan border, from where they continue to launch attacks against the national armed forces.

Pakistan's army, more than a half-million strong, has been reluctant to move against the rebels, who have previously been groomed by the forces to fight as their proxies, first in Afghanistan and later in India.

Since 2001, the Pakistani army has lost more than 2,000 soldiers in skirmishes against the Taliban in the inhospitable terrain along the border, where once Islamabad's security officials would guide the militants into Afghanistan to fight the Russian occupiers.

The bad blood between army and militants has given hope to local security analysts and US defence policy makers that Pakistan's army might re-write its security doctrine, replacing India with the Taliban as chief security threat.

The US needs Pakistan's commitment to fight a focussed war against the Taliban to succeed in Afghanistan and it has been trying to increase Pakistan's comfort level vis-a-vis India.

But the upcoming war games could put paid such hopes, as Pakistan puts its military strategy against India through its paces from April 10 to May 13 close to the Indian border.

'The exercise is a concept validation stage of the operational thought process manifested in the form of tactical, operational and organizational aspects which would be validated and refined through the lessons learnt,' military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said.

The two countries have a history of enmity and have fought three major wars since gaining independence from Britain in August 1947. Two of the clashes were over the Himalayan region of Kashmir, which is considered a flash point between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

General Muzzamil justified the manoeuvres, saying India had carried out at least 12 exercises in the recent past to test its cold start doctrine, and that another Indian exercise is scheduled to coincide with Pakistan's.

India's new strategy of launching quick strikes across the border will be at the heart of its month-long exercise, known as Yodha Shakti, which is to begin mid-April on the Indian side of the border.

The rival manoeuvres will put soldiers from the two armies - which number a combined total nearly 2 million troops - virtually within shouting distance of each other, in a move likely to give the United States something of a headache.

Washington has worked hard in recent years to soothe tensions between nuclear powers India and Pakistan, in the hope that Islamabad might then divert more of its attention and resources to fighting the Taliban militants.

But Pakistan's military high command does not appear to be convinced of India's proclaimed good intentions, and seems to be more concerned by Indian military capabilities and apparent posturing.

'We make our preparation to counter any move by India,' said Abbas. 'The intentions are immaterial as they can change over time, but not the potential which matters a lot for us.'

The Pakistani military's unwavering focus on India indicates that the defence establishment does not consider its operations against the Taliban to be anything more than a momentary diversion in the wider defence scenario.

Monday's coordinated attacks on a US consulate in Peshawar and a political party, which left 53 dead, were simply 'security problems', said Abbas, and did not warrant a wholesale rethinking of Pakistan's long-term security strategy.

'We are aware of double jeopardy including trouble on western and eastern fronts but the current exercise is to deal with dangers from east, we have separate plans to counter problems at the west,' Muzzamil added.

Like his boss, army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani who authorized it, Muzzamil believes that the field exercise, involving 20,000 to 40,000 troops, will help to draw up a Pakistani response plan for incidents on the eastern border with India.

Muzzamil also said that internal problems made any nation more vulnerable to external aggressions. 'We are training to counter any foreign move from the east at the time of our domestic security problems,' he said.