NEWS ANALYSIS: Political turmoil in India over nuclear deal with US

By Sunrita Sen Jul 5, 2008, 11:28 GMT

New Delhi - India's political scene was on the boil on Saturday after a major regional party said it would support Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government on a controversial civilian nuclear deal with the United States.

The announcement came after a week of hectic political activity following the United Progress Alliance (UPA) government's left party allies' announcement that they would withdraw support if Singh went ahead with the deal.

The threat, with the potential to topple his government, came as Singh prepared to leave for the G8 summit in Japan where he is expected to discuss progress on the nuclear deal with US President George W Bush.

The UPA government is now expected to face a confidence motion in parliament after Singh returns and may just be able to scrape through with the support of the Samajwadi Party.

India's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reacted aggressively to the developments, saying Singh should immediately seek a confidence vote in parliament as it had come to power with left support four years ago.

'I have never seen a government like today's. It's a charade,' the leader of the opposition and BJP's prime ministerial candidate LK Advani said at a press briefing in the Indian capital on Saturday. 'They have reduced governance to a theatre of the absurd,' he said.

The UPA government is due to complete its five-year term in May 2009. There is a prospect of a snap election earlier if the government fails to muster the required support in parliament. If it gets through then there cannot be another no-trust vote for at least six months.

With spiralling inflation caused by rising international crude oil and commodity prices, it may not be the best of times for the government to face the electorate.

Backtracking on a deal which was hammered out after two years of hard negotiations would also come as a blow both on the international and domestic fronts for Singh and the UPA.

The civilian nuclear deal would allow the US to export fissile technology and material to India ending a three-decade ban while India would open its civilian reactors to international inspection.

The left parties say they oppose the deal as it would adversely impact India's strategic sovereignty and make the country a stooge of 'US imperialism.'

The Hindu nationalist BJP is opposed to a clause which may stop India from conducting nuclear tests.

Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh, however, said that after a briefing by National Security Advisor MK Narayanan and talks with former president APJ Abdul Kalam, a scientist who has been at the helm of India's nuclear programme, the party had decided it was in the national interest to support the deal.

'In politics, parties switch sides often, but we have never sided with communal forces,' the Samajwadi leader said, adding: 'The BJP's communalism is a bigger danger than the imperialism of America.'

The Samajwadi Party is a member of a third front which opposes both the Congress Party, a leading partner in the UPA coalition, and the BJP. Other third front leaders say they will vote against the UPA if there is a trust motion in parliament.

But it is evident that all the political parties are gearing up for elections and the Samajwadi Party's latest position may have well been made with an eye on the hustings.

The two parties have the same vote-bank in populous Uttar Pradesh state and Digvijay Singh, an office-bearer of the Congress Party, said he did not rule out seat adjustments.

Advani was in full election mode at his press briefing, bringing up the issues of price rises, terrorism and the government's handling of the land for a Hindu shrine of Amarnath.

While the parties switch gears, time is fast running out for the nuclear deal. India has to finalize a country-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) needs to change its rules before the deal with the US can become operational.

Government sources said the negotiators are hoping that if the IAEA agreement, which is reportedly finalised and ready, can be sealed and NSG approval secured in a couple of months there is still a chance that the deal could be put to the US Congress for a final approval in a special session before Bush ends his term in office.

But in Indian politics, where things can get curiouser and curiouser, there is no certainty whether the deal will go through or whether Singh and his government will survive till May 2009.

The next session of India's Parliament is due to be held in August.