ANALYSIS: Coalition collapse bad omen for fight against extremism

By Nadeem Sarwar Aug 26, 2008, 12:31 GMT

Islamabad - The collapse of Pakistan's ruling alliance has come as a disappointment for many Pakistanis longing for political stability, but it might also be a bad omen for Western allies who want to see the country focus on its fight against Islamic extremists.

'The fight against militancy cannot be won without a comprehensive political strategy devised through a debate in the Parliament, where the parties with a wide spectrum of popular support come together to own it,' said Mehmood Shah, former security chief in the country's tribal region, which is the hub of a rising Islamic militancy.

'That opportunity is lost with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz [PML-N] pulling out of the coalition, and the Parliament will now be turned into a ring where the two major parties will wrestle for power instead of tackling the security issues,' he said.

Insurgents who have found safe haven in the remote tribal areas near the border with Afghanistan have stepped up their campaign of violence in recent weeks. Two suicide bombers blew themselves up Friday at a high-security military-run weapons factory, 30 kilometres north-west of Islamabad, killing about 80 employees.

Three days later, they targeted a police station in North-Western Frontier Province with a suicide car bombing, killing at least 10 people, including four police officers.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant umbrella organization, accepted responsibility for the attacks.

More than 4,000 people have perished in suicide bombings and other attacks on government forces, security installations and political rallies in 2007 and the first eight months of 2008.

The TTP also provides fighters shelter and training facilities for cross-border attacks in Afghanistan, where the Taliban have killed more than 188 NATO soldiers, including 101 US troops, since the start of this year.

Pakistan's government on Monday banned the TTP and three other pro-Taliban groups in a move that was unlikely to have much effect on the operations of the rebel organizations.

'The insurgents have shown that they can strike anywhere on their will and cause the sort of damage and destruction they want,' said retired general and political commentator Talat Masood. 'It makes the writ of the government almost non-existent.'

Unfortunately, Pakistan's political leaders continue to bicker in the face of such a big threat, he said.

The split between the right-wing PML-N and left-wing Pakistan People's Party (PPP) came barely one week after they managed to oust their common foe, former president Pervez Musharraf, a key US ally.

But they wrangled in the following days over the reinstatement of judges ousted by Musharraf, who resigned, and the nomination of the PPP's Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, for the presidency.

Some Western diplomats based in Islamabad welcomed the development since the chasm cleared the way for a new purely liberal and secular alliance, led by the PPP, which they believe would be more committed to fighting militants.

The new coalition includes the secular, ethnic Muttahida Qaumi Movement and the nationalist Awami National Party (ANP), which is known for its communist inclinations and anti-religious stance. The ANP defeated Islamic parties in February 18 elections in the restive North-West Frontier Province.

On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif, head of the PML-N and a former prime minister, is viewed as a conservative leader who has repeatedly criticized US policies in public during election rallies early this year and continued the onslaught while in the coalition government.

'Zardari is the only replacement for Musharraf that could be acceptable to everyone who wants Pakistan to win the war against the militants,' said one diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

But that might be mere wishful thinking by policymakers in Washington and European countries.

'The secular and liberal forces stand united now, but they have become extremely unpopular the way they have played their cards, especially Zardari, who publicly admitted that he had violated well-documented agreements with Sharif,' said one of Pakistan's leading political analysts, Hassan Askari Rizvi.

'He was nicknamed 'Mr 10 Per Cent' for the percentage he would allegedly get in kickback, and now there is a deficit of trust,' he added.

In contrast, Sharif has emerged morally victorious and more popular than ever before, and many analysts said if elections were held today, the liberal forces would lose heavily.

The coalition breakdown has pushed him toward Islamic parties - which have sympathies for tribal militants and extremists but were marginalized in February 18 elections - to augment his political base.

'It can turn out to be a major setback to the country's war on terrorism,' Shah said. 'These Islamic parties would try to use a popular figure like Sharif to aggravate already existing anti-American sentiments in Pakistan.'

'The prospect of extremists taking over is very dangerous for a country which is a nuclear power,' he added.

According to Shah, the Pakistan Army, which has more than 120,000 troops dedicated to fighting militants in tribal areas but lacks popular support, would continue to do what it could to suppress the insurgency but its efforts would be directionless in the absence of a robust policy.

'The PPP government will have to take Mr Sharif on board if it wants to deal with the menace of extremism,' retired general Masood said. 'Otherwise, it will lose the war even before it begins.'