By Nadeem Sarwar Mar 18, 2009, 14:16 GMT
Islamabad - Western foreign policy gurus have long overlooked Pakistan's opposition leader Nawaz Sharif because of his tilt towards Islamists, close relations with the Saudi royal family and criticism of tough US policies regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan.
But the mix of this shabby track record, recently gained popularity as well as political maturity, could prove quite instrumental in US President Barack Obama's expected policy shift, which is believed to entail seeking talks with moderate Taliban in the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Obama told the New York Times earlier this month that the United States is not winning the war in Afghanistan and it might reach out to moderates among the Taliban in order to alienate the hardliners. Afghan President Hamid Karzai welcomed the statement.
'The talks with certain Taliban elements are expected to be an important pillar of the new American policy against Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan,' said an official who was a member of Pakistan's team that participated in last month's trilateral consultations on policy review between Islamabad, Kabul and Washington.
'Under the reviewed policy, intensive force will be used against Taliban in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan for at least one year. When the Taliban are weekend to some extent, the US would like to talk to them from a point of strength,' he added.
When and if that stage is reached, the US would need mediators - a role Sharif could play.
'Most of the Taliban are Wahhabis and Mr Sharif has close ties with Wahhabis. Recently, he helped the head of the main Wahhabi political party Ahl-e-Hadith, Sajid Mir, to become a senator,' said a political analyst at Lahore University of Management Sciences, referring to the conservative form of Sunni Islam the Taliban adhere to.
'He can use this channel to have influence over the Taliban, if he chooses to do so,' he added.
Besides, in any talks with the Taliban, Saudi Arabia will be involved, and Sharif has also good relations with the Saudi royal family, who saved his life when he was sentenced to death following a coup by former military strongman Pervez Musharraf in 1999. Saudis also practice Wahhabism.
In September 2008, when Karzai's government officials, including his brother Abdul Qayoum Karzai, met with some Taliban leaders in the Saudi city of Mecca, some Pakistani media reports suggested Sharif had a role in arranging the talks. The reports were not confirmed by Sharif's party or the participants.
'There is no doubt that Sharif is seen with respect by the Islamists. He is also not viewed as a US stooge like President Asif Ali Zardari, and that makes him a relatively more credible mainstream Pakistani leader even among the extremist circles,' said analyst and a retired general Talat Masood.
It would, however, not be that easy for the US and other Western countries to trust Sharif, who turned down American appeals to avoid nuclear tests in 1998, and made a failed attempt to pass a controversial Islamic Sharia bill, to enforce Islamic law, which was was blocked in the upper house of parliament.
His opponents even accused him in the past of having contacts with al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in mid-1990s, which Sharif denies.
That might be the main reason why the US chose slain ex-premier Benazir Bhutto's liberal and secular Pakistan People's Party (PPP), as its ally in 2007 when Musharraf started to lose popularity and his political future looked bleak, turning Bhutto into a prime target for the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
The US pinned hopes on her widower Asif Ali Zardari, following her assassination in a suicide gun-and-bomb attack in December 2007. Riding a sympathy wave, the PPP won 2008 elections and Zardari became president.
Since then Sharif, whose Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party emerged as the second largest force, has overtaken Zardari in popularity.
'Time has changed, and so has Sharif, it seems,' Raees said.
Almost eight years of exile in Saudi Arabia and Britain polished Sharif's leadership skills, turning him into much more mature and moderate politician.
'When he returned, he criticized the US and Zardari's government for military actions in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but at the same time he condemned suicide attacks,' Raees added.
Few traces of the 1990s hawkish Sharif, when he led a anti-government from eastern city of Lahore to Islamabad earlier this month, demanding independent judiciary. Leading a crowd of tens of thousands of people he remained focused and humble, and called off the rally when Zardari caved in to his demands.
'Sharif handled the situation maturely. He did not try to incite the people though pressed his point of view very forcefully,' said political analyst Shahid Javed Burki.
Washington and other Western countries may have to appreciate this evolution, as the political tensions between Sharif and Zardari remain a prime source of concern as these shift Pakistan's focus away from the fight against terrorism and the tanking economy.
'The image of Nawaz Sharif will improve considerably as a moderate Muslim leader,' Burki said.
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