ANALYSIS: "Good" and "bad" Taliban unite in Pakistan's tribal region

By Nadeem Sarwar Jun 30, 2009, 11:20 GMT

   Islamabad - Taliban splinter groups in Pakistan's lawless tribal region appear to be putting aside their differences to disrupt the government's efforts to track down the fearsome warlord Baitullah Mehsud, who has a 5-million-dollar bounty on his head as an al-Qaeda facilitator.

   In a dramatic move this week, pro-government Taliban commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur scrapped a 16-month-old peace agreement in the tribal district of North Waziristan and announced his decision to carry out attacks on government forces.

   The statement came a day after dozens of Bahadur's fighters ambushed an army convoy in the district Sunday, killing 16 soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel, and destroying about a dozen vehicles.

   It was the biggest loss for the Pakistan Army on a single day since it launched an offensive against the Taliban in the north-western district of Swat in late April and expanded it to Mehsud's stronghold about two months later.

   Ahmadullah Ahmadi, a spokesman for Bahadur, told reporters by phone that the Taliban would continue its attacks until the government took action to stop missile attacks by US pilotless aircraft and withdrew Pakistani troops from North Waziristan.

   The announcement raises the prospect of more violence and disturbs the government's efforts to divide Islamist militants by making a distinction between 'good' Taliban - the ones who only attack US and NATO forces in Afghanistan - and the 'bad' ones who carry out attacks inside Pakistan.

   Without acknowledging it officially, the Pakistani government has tried to isolate Mehsud since it decided to take out the warlord, who has accepted responsibility for a series of suicide bombings across the country that have killed thousands of people over the past two years.

   In recent backdoor contacts, Pakistan requested three main 'good' Taliban commanders - Maulvi Nazir from South Waziristan, Bahadur from North Waziristan and Afghan leader Sirajuddin Haqqani - not to take Mehsud's side, a Peshawar-based intelligence official aware of the efforts said.

   By keeping the guns of an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters under the three commanders silent, the Pakistani military would have a much easier time flushing out Mehsud and his 10,000 to 15,000 well-trained fighters and suicide bombers, but this hope seems to be vanishing now.

   'Apparently, there is a growing realization among different Taliban groups that once Mr Mehsud is overwhelmed, they would be the next target,' retired general and defence analyst Talat Masood said.

   'Scrapping the peace deal in North Waziristan is an indication that the Taliban is extending the conflict, so that they can diffuse the military effort against their fellow Taliban in South Waziristan for their own survival,' he said.

   Pakistan's offensive in South Waziristan is also threatening the interests of the Afghan Taliban, who use the tribal region to launch cross-border attacks on NATO-led international forces in Afghanistan.

   A three-member Afghan Taliban delegation last week held a meeting with representatives of Baitullah and Bahadur in the Orakzai tribal district and delivered a message to them from the Taliban supreme commander, Mullah Omar.

   They were asked to put aside their differences and support each other as much as possible.

   'The message was very clear from Mullah Omar that Baitullah Mehsud will not be left alone,' said a Taliban commander who was briefed on the meeting.

   If the efforts of the Afghan Taliban succeed and Pakistani militants join hands against Pakistani forces, Islamabad would have no choice other than a radical revision of its decades-old policy of viewing the Taliban as a strategic asset on its western border in case it is attacked by India on its eastern frontier.

   'Pakistan, I am sure, will quickly review its botched policy and go against every single Taliban, and it seems the country is moving in that direction,' Masood said.

   He said the Pakistani military was capable of defeating the combined Taliban forces but the war would be a prolonged one and 'very bloody.'

   The Pakistani military might not necessarily fight all these warlords together. It could carry out a major action against one or two and attack the rest with jets, helicopter gunships and artillery fire to prevent them from supporting their colleagues.

   In addition, the army was likely to use local tribes who are against the Taliban to unbalance their authority in their areas, Masood said.

   'We will see all sorts of tactics being employed by the Pakistani authorities,' he said.

   This policy is sure to please the American military in Afghanistan, which has already begun to see the positive impact of Pakistan's military action in Swat and South Waziristan.