Clinton believes Karzai likely to win run-off

Oct 16, 2009, 23:28 GMT

Washington - US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday that Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai would likely win if a second round of voting is held.

A run-off election is appearing more likely, according to information leaked early Friday to the Washington Post and New York Times from the report by the UN-supported Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) of Afghanistan.

The new tally was expected to be completed Friday and to be handed over to the Independent Election Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan on Saturday, which then has to announce a corrected final result. The commission, however, has not yet indicated when it plans to release those results.

'I think one can conclude that the likelihood of (Karzai) winning a second round is probably pretty high,' Clinton said in an interview with CNN.

According to the newspaper reports, the complaint board found that Karzai's share of the vote was 47 or 48 per cent - not the 50-per- cent-plus-one-vote needed to have won August's elections.

Karzai had earlier been declared the winner by the IEC with 54.6 per cent of the votes, but the results were challenged under charges of massive election fraud.

'It is likely they will find that President Karzai got very close to the 50-plus-1,' Clinton said of of the complaint commission's findings.

   In the runoff, Karzai would face his closest challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, who once served in Karzai's administration as foreign minister.

   Afghanistan's constitution calls for a runoff within two weeks of the release of the results, a major logistical challenge for the IEC. A delay, however, could make polls impossible in large parts of the country due to the onset of winter.

   Observers also fear an even lower turnout than the 38.7 per cent in the first round, due to the precarious security situation and widespread frustration among the Afghan voters.