Clinton believes Karzai likely to win run-off (Roundup)

Oct 17, 2009, 4:58 GMT

   Washington - US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday that Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai would likely win if a second round of voting is held.

   A run-off election is appearing more likely, according to comments by an Afghan diplomat in Washington and to information leaked early Friday to the Washington Post and New York Times from the report by the UN-supported Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) of Afghanistan.

   The new tally was expected to be completed Friday and to be handed over to the Independent Election Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan on Saturday, which then has to announce a corrected final result. The commission, however, has not yet indicated when it plans to release those results.

   'I think one can conclude that the likelihood of (Karzai) winning a second round is probably pretty high,' Clinton said in an interview with CNN.

   Clinton said that the ballots have been printed for the run-off and the 'military, through NATO and through our own troops, is looking at how you would secure such a second round.'

   The ECC report comes amidst ongoing deliberations by US President Barack Obama with his national security team about future strategy in Afghanistan, including deliberations about increasing US troop strength. But Clinton declined to discuss details of those deliberations.

   According to the newspaper reports, the complaint board found that Karzai's share of the vote was 47 or 48 per cent - not the 50-per- cent-plus-one-vote needed to have won August's elections.

   Karzai had earlier been declared the winner by the IEC with 54.6 per cent of the votes, but the results were challenged under charges of massive election fraud.

   'It is likely they will find that President Karzai got very close to the 50-plus-1,' Clinton said of the commission's findings.

   In the run-off, Karzai would face his closest challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, who once served in Karzai's administration as foreign minister.

   Afghanistan's constitution calls for a run-off within two weeks of the release of the results, a major logistical challenge for the IEC. A delay, however, could make polls impossible in large parts of the country due to the onset of winter.

   Clinton said she thought the run-off could 'absolutely be carried out within the next few weeks before the snows come.'

   Observers also fear an even lower turnout than the 38.7 per cent in the first round, due to the precarious security situation and widespread frustration among Afghan voters.

   The Obama administration has made clear its dissatisfaction with Karzai's leadership and lack of accountability.

   Clinton noted that whatever the outcome of the ECC report, the US would have a 'different and more effective relationship' with the Afghan government - not only with the government in Kabul, but with governors throughout the country with what they call sub-national, regional, local leaders.'

   She chided former president George W Bush's administration for being 'unrealistic' in its involvement with the Afghan government and in the number of troops he sent there.

   'We're trying to be realistic here and not blow too hot or too cold,' she said.

   Clinton said she was confident that the Afghan elections had enough checks and balances to guarantee a 'real election.'