By Andrew Yurkovsky Oct 20, 2009, 4:08 GMT
Vienna - When defence ministers from the Atlantic alliance meet later this week in the Slovakian capital Bratislava, they are likely to hear yet another call to recommit themselves to the war in Afghanistan even as the resolve of the United States, the biggest contributor of troops, may be faltering.
In recent comments, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the new secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has emphasized the need of Europeans to bear their fair share of the security burden, in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
'The US must know and see that in difficult times, this alliance stands together and contributes together,' Rasumussen said in Brussels two weeks ago. 'If the US does not see that now, many in the US will wonder about Europe as a real partner for security.'
Rasmussen has outlined a three-pronged approach to revamping the Afghanistan mission: more forces for training purposes, more financing for Afghan security, and creating social and economic conditions for a lasting peace. This new approach is expected to figure prominently at the defence ministers' meeting.
Also expected on the agenda in Bratislava is a revised US plan for a missile shield to defend against so-called rogue states.
Last month President Obama mothballed a plan from the Bush administration involving a radar station in the Czech Republic and interceptors in Poland.
In theory, Rasmussen's call for more resources in Afghanistan chimes with the prescription of the top US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley A McChrystal. In an assessment of the mission of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), now entering its ninth year, he proposes adding 40,000 troops to the mission's current total of roughly 68,000.
But two factors could complicate any decision by Washington and NATO to intensify their commitment to Afghanistan: waning support for the war, among experts and the public, and continuing uncertainty over the results of Afghanistan's August presidential election.
On Sunday, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said a decision on sending new troops would have to await clarification of the Afghan election result and accusations of fraud in that poll.
Rasmussen himself downplayed the likelihood of a breakthrough in Bratislava on commitment of more forces. 'I don't envisage any decision in Bratslava concerning troop numbers,' he said Monday. He added, however, that he would push ministers hard on a training mission for Afghan forces, seeking trainers, equipment and money.
Rasmussen has spoken about transferring responsibility for security 'to the Afghans themselves.' Because this means giving the people the resources they need to combat extremism, he said Monday, his approach coincides with McChrystal's assessment.
'Afghanistan needs to be made strong enough to resist the insurgency if it is to be able to resist terrorism. It is as simple as that,' the former Danish prime minister said.
But Rasmussen will have his work cut out when he meets with defence ministers on Thursday and Friday, given the political uncertainty in Kabul and the ambivalent position of alliance members.
A second round of voting in Afghanistan's presidential election is looking increasingly likely, as an investigation is expected to show that the incumbent, Hamid Karzai, got less than the required 50 per cent of the vote.
Emanual told CNN on Sunday that it would be 'reckless' to set troop levels without a 'true partner in governing' Afghanistan.
And as the US prevaricates, so too has one of its staunchest allies.
Last week, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that his country would send an additional 500 troops to Afgahnistan, bringing its forces up to 9,500. But Brown's pledge was provisional. He told parliament that the troops would be sent only if 'certain conditions' were met, including more forces from fellow NATO countries and more Afghan troops for training.
On both sides of the Atlantic, public weariness is weighing on political will.
A poll published last month found US opposition to the war at an all-time high, the biggest sceptics being Democrats and independents.
According to the survey by CNN/Opinion Research Corp, 57 per cent of Americans questioned opposed the war, while 42 per cent supported it.
An August poll for The Independent on Sunday found that among Britons, 60 per cent of respondents agreed that British forces should be withdrawn as soon as possible, 33 per cent disagreed with that view and 8 per cent didn't have an opinion.
Support in Afghanstan itself for the presence of foreign troops is also declining.
According to the survey, commissioned by the BBC, ABC News and ARD, only 32 per cent of respondents thought US forces were doing a good or excellent job, compared to 68 per cent in 2005.
Favourable views of Americans and British had also declined, the survey found.
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