OVERVIEW: Looking for the exit, Afghan allies wade deeper in

By dpa correspondents Jan 25, 2010, 5:04 GMT

Washington/Berlin - When US President Barack Obama announced in December that he would send 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan to 'finish the job', the expectation was that the other, mostly European, members of the NATO alliance would back him up.

That ambition, and what the aimed-for 7,000 extra NATO troops will do to help end the war in Afghanistan, is the subject of a key conference to take place in London on Thursday.

Obama and NATO's strategy, is to boost the Afghan forces to a point where they can take care of themselves, foster the political development of the country, and then begin to leave by 2011.

In recent days, developments in Afghanistan have made that look like a fairly tall order.

On Monday, Taliban suicide attackers penetrated to the heart of Kabul in an audacious assault that seemed timed to snub President Hamid Karzai's announcement that he would seek to reintegrate the militants back into the mainstream.

The next day, a UN report said that over half of Afghans have had to pay a bribe to a public official in the past year, and that corruption was an even bigger worry for most than security.

And on Sunday, it emerged that parliamentary elections planned for May will be postponed because of 'lack of budget, security uncertainties, and logistical challenges,' according to the country's Independent Election Commission.

Despite all this, Obama's envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week that 'for the first time since the conflict in Afghanistan began eight years ago, we have an innovative, whole-of-government strategy to protect our vital national security interests in this region.'

One of the key objectives of the London meeting then, which will involve the 43 nations in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will be to bind military action into a civilian-focused strategy that can help Afghanistan run itself.

The US government is known to want to appoint a 'civilian coordinator' to work alongside the top military man in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal.

The so-called networked approach plays well with European allies, some of whom have been arguing for such an outlook for a long time.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has not yet committed to sending more troops, but is expected to offer some, said on Saturday that 'without peace there is no reconstruction, but without reconstruction there will be no peace either.'

So although the allies are dramatically stepping up their own military commitments in Afghanistan, diplomats are likely to stress efforts to boost Afghan capabilities in the few months that remain between now and Obama's stated date for beginning withdrawal, July 2011.

The NATO plan is to boost the police force to 134,000 and the army to 171,000 by around that date.

'The key is the professionalization of the Afghan army and the police,' Olivier Grouille, defence analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told the German Press Agency dpa.

From Britain's point of view, if the Afghan training scheme proceeds as planned, and Afghan forces could be sent in large numbers to 'support' British troops in the volatile south of the country, public pressure on the British government for an 'exit strategy' was likely to ease, Grouille said.

But while the NATO allies are still largely focused on 'defeating' the Taliban, many in both Afghanistan and neighbouring Pakistan take the view that the Islamist militants will be an integral part of whatever happens after the Western armies leave.

Karzai is known to be seeking around 1 billion dollars to help pay lower-ranking and less-convinced Taliban militants to lay down their weapons and re-enter mainstream life, and possibly take up government-sponsored jobs.

In Pakistan, where the strategic focus has long been centred on arch-enemy India, the fight against the Taliban seems only likely to be taken to those militants that directly threaten Islamabad.

'The Pakistani authorities have serious doubts over the prospects of the US winning the war in Afghanistan despite the troop surge,' said Tanvir Ahmed Khan, a former Pakistani foreign secretary and now chairman of the state-run think-tank, the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad.

With all of these doubts present, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has been attempting to keep allies focused as the conference nears.

'Yes, the costs of this operation are high, both in treasure and life, but the costs of walking away would be far far higher. Our security in Rome, London, Madrid, New York - in all our capitals depends on it,' he said.