Nepal marks quake safety day amid fears of "big one"

By Pratibha Tuladhar Jan 16, 2012, 14:27 GMT

Kathmandu - As Nepal marked National Earthquake Safety Day on Monday, experts warned of a major earthquake for which the capital Kathmandu remains unprepared.

Studies have shown that Kathmandu is one of the world's high-risk cities, but is unprepared for a high-magnitude tremor.

According to geologists, Nepal is at the meeting point of two tectonic plates, which were responsible for creating the Himalayan mountain range when they converged. This makes it a hotspot for quakes, putting the lives of millions of people at risk.

The United Nations and the Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery rank Nepal 11th among earthquake-prone countries in the world. A study conducted by GeoHazards International, a California-based non-governmental organization, in 2001 placed Kathmandu among the world's 20 high-risk cities and most vulnerable to damage by a major earthquake.

Kathmandu is the most-populated area of the country and home to an estimated 3 million people.

'Kathmandu stands on soft sediment as it used to be a lake,' says Archan Dawadi, a geologist working for the government's Mining Department. The sediment is made up of clay, he says, and is not solid enough for heavy settlements.

'You could compare Kathmandu to a bowl of yogurt, the contents of which will continue to shake after you hit the bowl, even though the bowl has stopped moving.'

Dawadi says the shockwaves passing through Kathmandu could be amplified because the valley is soft and vulnerable.

In 2011, a 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck Nepal, killing eight people and destroying the homes of 1,700 households in the eastern part of the country. Of those families, 700 still live in tents and some in caves as the government hasn't been able to provide them with more permanent shelter.

Kathmandu hasn't experienced a major quake since the 1930s. More than 8,500 people died in a magnitude-8.4 quake in 1934, which destroyed half of the capital's buildings. In 1988, a 6.6-magnitude earthquake killed more than 700 people.

'It is critical that Nepal gets better prepared, before the next 'big one' that might be much closer to Kathmandu and much more severe,' the head of the United Nations in Nepal, Robert Piper, wrote in the Republica daily Monday.

In recent years, the city has grown rapidly and the uncontrolled construction of high-rise buildings that are not earthquake-resistant is a major concern.

There seems to be a tacit acknowledgement of the impending 'big one,' but little is being done to prepare for it. There are no earthquake drills at schools and homes do not have GO-bags, which contain essential supplies for a short period.

'For Kathmandu, it's not the earthquake but the post-earthquake scenario like fire or electric-shock that's more threatening since the city is ill-managed,' Dawadi says.

Kathmandu is a dense settlement with only alleyways separating houses in most parts of the old city, which consists of run-down mud and brick houses.

'If a major earthquake happens, narrow roads could be blocked, leaving little room for rescue operations in the old part of Kathmandu,' Dawadi says. 'Things would only be worse if it happened during monsoon when the houses are likely to collapse more easily.'

Moreover, access to the capital valley is limited. The city has one airport and only three highways that connect it to the rest of the country, which means rescue work could be hampered if these were not functioning after an earthquake.

According to the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), if a 7.-magnitude quake hit Kathmandu, 200,000 people would die, and about the same number would be injured. Up to 60 per cent of homes are likely to be destroyed and 1.5 million would be left without shelter.

NSET and government studies say two-thirds of the capital's structures are not fit to withstand a quake of more than 8-magnitude.

The UN's Piper wrote: 'We don't know how many days we have until the next earthquake.'