ANALYSIS: Pakistan in three-pronged political crisis

By Nadeem Sarwar Jan 18, 2012, 11:22 GMT

Islamabad - Pakistan, a nuclear power and key Western ally in the fight against Taliban insurgents, is facing its biggest political crisis in recent years.

Lines are drawn for a showdown between the military and civilian government, and the judiciary is also trying to rein in the administration.

Some analysts believe the escalating conflict between the three powers could lead to the dismissal of the unpopular government and result in early elections.

The worst-case scenario is a military coup, which could occur if the government tries to sack army chief general Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Lieutenant General Shuja Pasha, the head of powerful Inter Services Intelligence. But that seems a remote possibility.

A dramatic turn came early this week when the Supreme Court cited Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani for contempt. He was due to appear in court on Thursday.

The judiciary lost patience over the government's refusal to implement its orders to ask Swiss authorities to reopen cases of money laundering against President Asif Ali Zardari.

The charges date back to the 1990s when Zardari's late wife Benazir Bhutto was prime minister. He is alleged to have received commissions for contracts and transferred the money to Swiss banks.

At the request of the Pakistani government, Swiss investigations were closed. That was part of a complex political deal made by former military dictator Pervez Musharraf and Bhutto.

Gilani's government says the cases against Zardari cannot be re-opened because he enjoys immunity as president.

But the judiciary headed by fiercely independent Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is demanding respect for the rule of law and for court orders.

An independent judiciary is new to all in Pakistan, including politicians and generals. In the past, appointing judges of their choice would lend legitimacy and cover to their actions.

At the same time, the powerful army generals and the government are at daggers drawn over a memo allegedly sent by a Zardari envoy asking US officials to prevent a possible military coup, after Osama bin Laden was killed by US commandos on May 2.

The army said Zardari approved the memo, and demanded he be tried for treason. The government denied the existence of the memo.

Kayani warned of 'grievous consequences' over Gilani's accusation that he and Pasha had violated the rules when replying to the court that is investigating the scandal. Gilani said their answers to the court needed the government's permission.

Gilani responded by dismissing the top bureaucrat in the Defence Ministry, a close confidant of Kayani.

Despite the tensions, the military could be restrained by the country's vibrant media and opposition political parties.

'No doubt people are against this dysfunctional democratic government but they will not welcome any military government now,' said Rasool Bux Raees, a professor at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

'Independent media, which was not available during all the previous coups, has educated them well to find alternative ways within the framework of democracy.'

But Gilani could lose his post if he is convicted of contempt when he appears in court, and he would not likely stir up much sympathy.

His government has been marred by corruption charges and economic mismanagement for three years. The country is facing double-digit inflation, the currency has shed almost 40 per cent its value, and cuts to electricity and gas supplies have wearied the public.

'Do you think we will have any sympathy for Gilani if he goes? What has he given us?' asked an Islamabad resident named Mumtaz.

'We can't cook food, warm water is not available for even washing your face, elders are suffering and children are getting sick.'