After the Irish "Yes" - Referendum in Britain? (News Feature)

By Thomas Pfaffe Oct 5, 2009, 15:24 GMT

London - Two signatures are all that stand in the way of the Treaty of Lisbon coming into force. But after Ireland's 'Yes' at the weekend, calls are growing in Britain for a referendum that could once again throw Europe's reform process into chaos.

Britons are looking with bated breath to eastern Europe. Will Poland, and above all the Czech Republic, sign the treaty into law before a general election is likely to be held in Britain next year?

'We want a referendum,' said Britain's opposition leader David Cameron. According to opinion polls the Conservative Party leader will likely succeed Gordon Brown as Britain's next prime minister.

Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum if the treaty has not been ratified by all 27 EU member states by the time he hopes to move into 10 Downing Street. But the Eurosceptic wing of his party now wants to know if he would continue to fight the treaty if it does get the go ahead in the meantime.

Fuelling their concern is the prospect that former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair will receive the new post of permanent president of the EU Council.

'If we are faced with the prospect of Tony Blair suddenly emerging, suddenly pupating into an intergalactic spokesman for Europe, then I think the British people deserve a say,' said Boris Johnson, the Conservative Mayor of London, at the beginning of the party's conference in Manchester.

But his party colleague David Cameron is being more circumspect. 'I don't want to say anything or do anything now that would undermine or prejudice what is happening in other countries where they are still debating whether to ratify this treaty.'

However, that statement does not fit with a letter Cameron sent to Czech President Vaclav Klaus urging him to delay signing the treaty's ratification bill into law.

The matter of Poland's signature looks less serious. Eurosceptic Vaclav Klaus, however, has said he will wait for the Czech Republic's supreme court to decide if the treaty conforms to the country's constitution before he adds his name to the bill.

Cameron's hope the Czech court will delay making a decision until May when a general election is likely to happen in Britain could well be dashed. Privately he may be banking on Gordon Brown being overthrown by his own party. That would lead to an early election and Cameron could assume power before the treaty comes into force.

According to an internal party opinion poll the majority of Tories want to have a referendum at any price even when the treaty has come affect. Cameron is keeping silent on this scenario, however. Doing so leads to the risk of unrest at the party conference where he wanted to keep the subject of Europe as far away as possible.

Cameron has good reason for that. In addition to the problem that experts are not sure how a referendum can be held on a treaty that has come into force, Cameron would be a political dead man for his European counterparts by taking such a step. That is not a prospect a Conservative prime minister after 12 years in opposition would relish.

It is possible the speculation surrounding Tony Blair becoming council president will soon be irrelevant as the former prime minister does not enjoy universal support in Brussels.

His home natino does not belong to the eurozone and it continues to maintain border controls even though it is a signatory to the Schengen Agreement. That could work against him taking up the post of EU President which must be unanimously agreed by all member states.

Blair's role in the Iraq war has also not been forgotten and some European countries such as Germany are less than enthusiastic about him getting the job.

There are other candidates such as Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker or the Netherlands's Prime Minister Jan-Peter Balkenende who according to unconfirmed reports has the support of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

For Britain's beleaguered Labour Party the debate within the Conservatives over a possible referendum is a welcome break after months of bad news. Foreign Secretary David Miliband has warned that Britain risks being isolated in Europe under a Prime Minister Cameron.

Miliband has also poured oil on the waters by suggesting that Blair would be 'a wonderful choice' as EU Council President.