2009 YEARENDER: Britain's relations with EU set to take turn for the worse

Dec 31, 2009, 14:26 GMT

   London - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown was over the moon when Catherine Ashton, his long-time political ally, was chosen for the new job of the European Union's (EU) foreign policy supremo by heads of states in late November.

   The move, he said, showed that Britain's place remained at the 'heart' of Europe and Ashton would be at the forefront of 'shaping the global Europe of the future.'

   However, as things stand, Brown, who is popular in Europe, may not be at the helm of British politics much longer, meaning he could miss out on most of the achievements of Ashton's five-year tenure.

   General elections in Britain, which could be held as early as March and must take place by June 2010, are widely predicted to mark the end of the rule of Brown's Labour Party and signal a sea change for the country's Conservative Party, or Tories.

   Tory leader David Cameron is not at all popular among EU leaders. His election could mark the point where Britain's relations with the EU become tricky, experts predict.

   'The EU will be a huge pain for Cameron,' Hugo Brady from the Centre for European Reform think tank in London told the German Press Agency dpa.

   Cameron has upset fellow European leaders by withdrawing Tory members from the European Parliament's mainstream conservative European People's Party (EEP) to set up a new grouping, the European Conservatives and Reformist Group (ECRG), which comprises a number of ultra-conservative parties from Eastern Europe.

   As a result, Europe's two most powerful leaders, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, have gone out of their way to avoid being seen in the company of the 43- year-old British liberal-conservative politician.    

At home, meanwhile, Cameron will have to fight critics within his own party who continue to demand some sort of referendum on Britain's EU membership, while striving to fulfil his promise that he will claw back powers ceded to Brussels under the Lisbon Treaty.

   The question asked by many in Europe is what Cameron can do to get out of the corner he has boxed himself into with his withdrawal from the centrist EEP grouping.

   'Nothing, really,' says Brady. 'The larger grouping matters. He will have to develop a voting pattern and engage in horse-trading.'

   Cameron had clearly underestimated the consequences of his 'symbolic action.' He had hoped it would please the party base and match a general attitude in Britain - one that the European Parliament does not matter, said Brady.

   'But that has changed. No one believed then that the Lisbon Treaty would be ratified so quickly and make the European Parliament very powerful overnight,' he added.

   How Cameron would be received by his fellow Europeans depends entirely on whether, and if, the Conservatives change their attitude to Europe, suggested Brady.

   The task facing the British Conservative had not been made any easier by the election of low-key figures to the two top positions of EU President and foreign policy high representative.

'There is no bete noir to latch on to,' Brady said, adding that Britain would have to realize that building a federation was simply not the EU's goal.

   'The EU has changed. When Cameron comes to power, he cannot fall into the trap of euroscepticism. He needs to adopt a policy of arch- pragmatism, the less British the better,' Brady said.