PREVIEW: Northern Ireland heads for historic poll - again

By Anna Tomforde Mar 6, 2007, 2:07 GMT

Belfast/London - The two giants of Northern Ireland politics are doing battle in elections this week that could bring together life-long political foes in a power-sharing government between Protestants and Catholics.

Ian Paisley, the 80-year-old firebrand Protestant preacher who spent decades declaring he would 'never, ever surrender', may find he will finally have to shake hands with Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, the 58-year-old veteran Republican politician whose peace efforts have invited comparisons with Nelson Mandela.

Under a timetable imposed by the governments in London and Dublin, this Wednesday's elections to a Regional Assembly (parliament) at Stormont Buildings in Belfast are to culminate in the formation of a power-sharing government (Executive) by March 26.

If this latest attempt at devolution for Northern Ireland should fail, the British and Irish governments have threatened to dissolve the Assembly indefinitely, and to cut the salaries and allowances of its 108 members.

For British Prime Minister Tony Blair, establishing a power- sharing government in Northern Ireland is an important item on his 'to do list' before he steps down later this year.

Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Bertie Ahern has been equally frustrated by the ups and downs in the long drawn-out peace process, which began with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.

If Paisley and Adams, the two men representing the political - and religious - extremes in Northern Ireland, fail to do business in the two weeks after the poll, London and Dublin will impose a 'joint stewardship' on the British province, meaning that it will effectively be ruled from London.

This has already been the case since October, 2002, when Northern Ireland's limited self-government collapsed and was suspended over allegations that a Republican 'spy ring' was operating in the Assembly.

For a short and exhilarating three months, from December 1999 to February 2000, Northern Ireland had its first devolved government under the leadership of Nobel Peace Prize winner David Trimble, leader of the more centrist Ulster Unionist Party (UUP).

But constant UUP infighting and tension with Sinn Fein over IRA disarmament, eventually forced Trimble's departure from politics and left a vacuum for extremist parties to gain support.

A major turning point was reached in July, 2005, when Adams announced that the IRA would dissolve - and that 'the war is over.'

Northern Ireland's 1.7 million people, meanwhile, largely ignored the squabbling of the politicians and applied the dividends of the peace accord to their own benefit.

After being repeatedly asked to vote in elections and referendums over the years, the people of Northern Ireland have adopted a somewhat detached approach to Wednesday's vote.

A recent opinion poll showed that half of the respondents believe that it is likely that a working Assembly and Executive will be established after the election.

Paisley, who has so often said 'No' to political accommodation with the Catholic community, is now clearly thinking of his own legacy.

He declared recently that he 'feels ready to take over' a government in which Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator and one-time IRA commander, is likely to be his deputy.

However, Paisley also gave an indication of how little his hardline thinking has changed.

The elections would make sure that Northern Ireland would still be 'part of Britain for our children's children's children,' he predicted.

Meanwhile Adams, whose skilful leadership has encouraged the ground-breaking changes that helped make peace - and the elections - possible, made clear that he has not lost sight of the ultimate goal of Irish unity.

Hailing Sinn Fein's endorsement at a recent special party conference of the police and the judiciary in Northern Ireland, he said: 'The party has demonstrated its vision, determination and ability to build a new Ireland.'