ANALYSIS: Scottish independence question rocks British politics

By Anna Tomforde Jan 11, 2012, 16:20 GMT

London- In Britain, the new year has kicked off with political fireworks as the potentially explosive issue of independence for Scotland has been thrust to the top of the political agenda.

The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) has fought for decades for independence for Scotland from its 305-year-old union with England.

Having finally won a landslide victory in May elections for the region's devolved parliament it has been limbering up to put the question to its electorate.

But in an initiative described either as skilful or highly risky, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron this week forced the issue by challenging the SNP to reveal its hand on the timing and legality of an independence referendum.

He argued that the devolved status granted to Scotland under the 1998 Act of Devolution excludes control over constitutional issues, which remains with the parliament of Westminster in London.

A binding poll could, therefore, only be held with the consent of the Westminster parliament, and it should be held sooner rather than later in order to end the continuing 'uncertainty' over the vote.

Cameron's intervention provoked a prompt and furious response from the fiercely nationalist regional government in Edinburgh, Scotland's capital, where the Tory-led 'English government' is perceived as arrogant and out-of-touch.

'I thought his intervention was almost Thatcher-esque in its nature, the idea that London knows best,' retorted a furious Alex Salmond, SNP leader and the First Minister (head of regional government) in Scotland.

Salmond believes that his party's overall majority in the Scottish parliament gives him a mandate to call a consultative referendum in which London has no role to play.

That poll, he announced late Tuesday, would be held in the autumn of 2014 - and not a year earlier, as the British government wanted.

While Cameron clearly hopes that an early referendum, based on conditions set by the British government, could scupper its chances of success, Salmond banks on 2014 as a year that could see his dream of Scottish independence come true.

There has been speculation that the SNP favours holding a vote in 2014 to benefit from the 'feelgood factor' generated by the Commonwealth Games, which are scheduled to be held in Glasgow that summer.

A boost to nationalist sentiment is also expected from celebrations to mark the 700th anniversary of a significant Scottish victory over the English at the 1314 battle of Bannockburn, according to commentators.

The political manoeuvring in London and Edinburgh is likely to trigger a long drawn-out legal process that could plunge Britain into a serious constitutional crisis, the Guardian predicted Wednesday.

Because, what is at stake, ultimately, is the possible break-up of the United Kingdom in its present form. Should the SNP succeed in its ambition to sever itself from England, other parts of the UK, namely Northern Ireland and Wales, could be bolstered in their demand for a greater degree of independence.

But Salmond also has political problems of his own to contend with. The SNP's drive for independence is rejected not only by the British government, but also by all other parties in Scotland - Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

Opinion polls have shown that public support for full independence for Scotland, which would become a country of just 5.2 million people, remains at approximately 30 per cent, on a rising trend.

However, if the question is put whether Scots want a greater degree of devolution - a concept known as 'devolution max' that would bring crucial tax-rasing powers - support rises to well over 50 per cent.

Scotland, while perhaps best known internationally for its key export, whisky, is the home of Britain's lucrative North Sea oil-and gas industry, which boost the British government's tax coffers to the tune of at least 6 billion pounds (9.2 billion dollars) a year.

Seen from the London perspective, an independent Scotland would no doubt diminish Britain's international economic and political status, while Scotland could become a 'Tory-free zone' - the Conservative party currently has just one lawmaker north of the border.

According to Angus Robertson, leader of the SNP group in the Westminster parliament in London, the SNP wants to gain national sovereignty over the economy, taxation, defence and foreign policy while keeping Queen Elizabeth II as head of state and the British pound as its currency.

An independent Scotland would seek alliances with 'our neighbours in Scandinavia' on issues such as renewable energies and natural resources, Robertson told dpa.

It would follow Ireland's example and lower corporation tax to attract business investment and seek to play a 'positive role in the EU' while - for the time being, shunning the euro.

At present, Scotland was unable to reap fully the fruits of its 'tremendous economic advantages' derived from its role as the EU's largest oil and gas producer and a wealth of natural energy resources, he said.

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