Is Bin Laden more symbol than threat five years after 9/11?

By Anne-Beatrice Clasmann and Can Merey Sep 11, 2006, 15:53 GMT

Kabul/Cairo - The United States and its allies have deployed all their resources - intelligence services, elite troops, drones and even a bounty offer of 25 million dollars - but the world's most wanted terrorist remains at large.

Osama bin Laden disappeared from view shortly after the September 11, 2001 attacks and, five years later, there is still no trace of him.

Many in Kabul, from where the Taliban regime provided a safe haven for Bin Laden until they were toppled at the end of 2001, doubt whether the US administration really aims to capture the al-Qaeda leader.

Some believe that he serves Washington's anti-terrorist campaign better by being at large.

After the September 11 attacks, President George Bush swore that Bin Laden would be tracked down, and the US army predicted in Afghanistan in 2004 that the al-Qaeda head would be found before the year was out.

But by the end of the year, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was saying that the trail had run cold.

In May last year there was a brief revival of hope that the trail could be picked up. Investigators believed that the arrest in Pakistan of the apparent number three of the terrorist network would lead them to Bin Laden's lair.

But Abu Faraj al-Liby did not deliver his boss.

Since then speculation has reigned. It is thought that Bin Laden could be in the inaccessible region along the Pakistani-Afghan border, but there is no concrete evidence for this.

Both governments insist he is not on their side of the border - but without providing backup for their claim.

The US administration answers questions about Bin Laden with the vague prediction that he will face justice, but it remains an open question when this will happen.

One Afghan general told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa he did not necessarily believe the al-Qaeda leader would eventually face punishment.

The US had a strong interest in remaining in this strategically crucial region, he said, noting that Afghanistan's neighbours include Iran, China, Pakistan and CIS states rich in natural resources.

If Washington's enemy Number One Bin Laden was gone, much of the justification for the US presence in the region would be gone, too, he said.

Some foreign observers in Kabul are also inclined to this way of thinking. If Bin Laden was caught, the US would lose its greatest enemy and the man who helps to justify the war on terrorism.

In terms of this view, Bin Laden has become a symbolic figure rather than a genuine threat.

And in Afghanistan itself, attacks by insurgents and radical Islamists continue unabated even without the obvious presence of the al-Qaeda leader.

Indeed, the predictions of terrorist experts of three years ago have come to pass among Arab extremists. The seed of hatred of the West has germinated among Arab Muslims, while Bin Laden's significance as an active leader masterminding terrorist attacks has gradually declined.

One example of this development is Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi who was killed by US troops in Iraq in June.

This Jordanian-born terrorist leader found it useful to declare his loyalty to 'Sheikh Osama' but there is no solid evidence that he received orders, weapons or volunteers from Bin Laden and his followers.

The al-Qaeda cells in Saudi Arabia also operate autonomously under their own leaders, according to the security services there. Saudi- born Bin Laden serves merely as a symbol.

Although many Arab Muslims share Bin Laden's analysis of US policies in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq, they often object that al-Qaeda's attacks on civilians are both brutal and ill- conceived.

There has also been an unexpected shift. Although most Arab Muslims are Sunni, one of the most popular current leaders is a Shiite - the leader of Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

Like Bin Laden, he appears in public wearing a turban and long beard. A recent Egyptian poll found him to be the most popular leader in the region.