Iraq shift seen as Bush's last chance

By Tony Czuczka Jan 11, 2007, 11:58 GMT

Washington - US President George W Bush's decision to send more than 20,000 extra troops to Iraq in the biggest overhaul of his war strategy so far is a high-stakes gamble that will make or break his presidency, analysts said.

Bush's plan, unveiled in a much-anticipated speech Wednesday, faces high hurdles. A majority of Americans oppose the buildup, Democrats who took charge of Congress this month are hostile, and key parts of the strategy depend on Iraqi government cooperation.

'I think this is the last chance for him,' political scientist Stephen Hess told the Cable News Network (CNN). 'He's got only two more years left in his administration.'

Veteran leftwing Senator Edward Kennedy this week called Iraq 'George Bush's Vietnam.' He and other Democrats call the more aggressive approach Bush outlined Wednesday an 'escalation' - a word with echoes of the Vietnam era and a war the US eventually lost.

More worrisome for Bush is a surge in outspoken criticism from his own centre-right Republican Party, which lost majorities in both houses of Congress in November elections that largely turned on the Iraq war.

Hours before Bush addressed the nation from the White House, Republican Senator Norm Coleman spoke out in the upper chamber against a troop increase.

'I just don't believe this makes sense,' he said.

Centre-left Democrats, in control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 12 years, have signaled they will confront Bush at every turn as he moves forward on Iraq.

Seeking to spur those in his party who fear a popular backlash if they challenge Bush directly, Kennedy is proposing legislation that would require congressional approval for the extra troops. Other Democrats say they may consider withholding money for the buildup.

Congressional hearings of top administration officials involved in Iraq policymaking were to start Thursday, fulfilling a Democratic campaign pledge for tough oversight of the war.

Republican Senator Gordon Smith, who also broke with Bush over the troop boost, said that the president's speech set up 'a traditional war-powers confrontation' - and sounded like he welcomed the fight.

Bush argues that the extra troops, coupled with more US pressure on Iraq's Shiite Muslim Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to help stop sectarian killings, will provide the critical muscle to stop the cycle of violence, setting the stage for an eventual US pullout without leaving behind a failed state.

The plan is 'his last credible opportunity' to set a winning course in Iraq, said Anthony Cordesman of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Democrats have urged Bush to start a withdrawal within six months, calling it the only way to push Iraqi security forces to take charge of the country.

'We cannot impose a military solution,' said Democratic Senator Barack Obama, a likely presidential contender in 2008.

Bush asked Americans for 'more patience, sacrifice and resolve' in 2007 and warned them against the temptation to 'put aside the burdens of freedom.'

Some say he may be right to press ahead, even though Americans are disheartened with the war, in which more than 3,000 US troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis have died.

'Pulling out now could turn Iraq into a Rwanda-style genocidal civil war,' said Max Boot, a security analyst at the nonpartisan Council on Foreign Relations. 'My sense is that most Americans recognize this and still want to salvage an acceptable outcome, if possible.'