In record dry spell LA fears the perfect drought

By Andy Goldberg Apr 2, 2007, 20:19 GMT

expect more of these scenes due to the drought REUTERS/Sam Mircovich

Los Angeles - Los Angeles is suffering its driest spell since record-keeping began 130 years ago, fuelling fears that global warming could cause a 'perfect drought' that could dry all the far- flung water sources for a region of over 18 million people.

According to a report by the National Weather Service on Sunday, Los Angeles has received just 6.27 centimetres of rain since July 1, 2006, compared to an average of 35.4 centimetres.

'The rain season is currently the driest to date in downtown Los Angeles since records began in 1877,' the weather service said in a statement.

'If downtown Los Angeles receives less than 4.9 centimetres of rain from now through June 30th this will become the driest rain season ever,' it said.

Currently the driest year on record is the 2001-2002 season, which saw just 11.22 centimetres of rain.

Already the drought has catalysed a series of recent wildfires that are commonly seen only in the late fall months when the forests and brushlands are tinder-dry from months of the region's famous sunshine.

A potentially devastating confluence of weather patterns could conspire to quickly turn the region into a modern dust bowl that could lead to uncontrollable wildfires, the breakdown of the electricity grid and a disaster for agriculture, experts say.

The huge southern California urban and suburban area, which is about the size of Switzerland, draws its water from three areas - the Sierra Mountains snowpack, direct rainfall on the region and the Colorado River Basin.

Normally at least one of these three areas is reasonably wet even when the others are dry. But this year, the snowpack is at the lowest level in nearly two decades, the Los Angeles area has had record low rainfall and the Colorado River system remains in the grip of one of the worst droughts in centuries.

'I have been concerned that we might be putting all the pieces in place to develop a new perfect drought,' University of California at Los Angeles geography professor Glen MacDonald told the Los Angeles Times.

MacDonald has researched drought patterns in California and the Colorado River basin covering the past 1,000 years, and believes that periods of prolonged drought for decades could soon become a reality.

'This is the billion-dollar question,' MacDonald said. 'Will global warming push us into another prolonged perfect drought?'

The crisis will not hit this year. Thanks to record rainfall last year there is still a decent supply of water in California's reservoirs.

The big reservoirs in the Colorado system, which last year provided the Los Angeles Metropolitan Water District with 30 per cent of its deliveries, are roughly half empty as a result of a drought that started in 2000.

Federal officials have said that within a few years they may be forced to cut Colorado deliveries, although the states of Arizona and Nevada would be hit before California, which has senior water rights in the key parts of the river system.

But the severe droughts of the late 1980s prompted water officials to institute conservation measures that have kept water demand relatively steady, even as the region's population soars. They also constructed large new reservoirs to help store water from rainy years.

Officials are confident that the water system can survive whatever nature throws at it.

'We're watching this. We're not pleased. We're not worried, either,' said Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the region's major water wholesaler. 'If it does continue, we have prepared ourselves for a multiple-year drought.'