US Features

Outside View: The real Axis of Evil

By Fred Stakelbeck Apr 27, 2007, 12:53 GMT

In his 2002 State of the Union Address, President George Bush used the term “Axis of Evil” to describe the regimes of Iraq, Iran and North Korea, saying that all three countries were sponsoring terror and pursuing weapons of mass destruction. Since that groundbreaking speech, a new and potentially more dangerous “Axis of Evil” has emerged - China, Russia and Iran - that increasingly pose not only a threat to U.S. national security interests, but world peace and global stability as well. But don’t blame President Bush for missing this important geopolitical shift. The new Axis of Evil has taken shape rapidly and somewhat unexpectedly. This Axis of Evil has surfaced not only as a result of the Iraq War and perceived U.S. hegemony, rather, its foundation has been built on a number of other important common-interest issues such as energy security, political ideology and a need reassert regional influence based upon historical precedent dating back almost two thousand years. Taken collectively, the continuing disruptive actions of China, Russia and Iran not only merit Washington’s attention, but also an immediate, well fashioned and definitive response. Let’s examine the facts. China has quickly become the elephant in the room that everyone – from Capital Hill politicians to senior Pentagon policymakers – wants to ignore but can’t. A laundry list of issues from the revaluation of the yuan that continues to severely damage the U.S. economy - to Beijing’s ongoing military modernization program aimed at confronting the U.S. in Asia and beyond – are slowly being recognized and addressed by the Bush administration, senior Pentagon officials and the U.S. Treasury Department. Complicating matters, China’s successful January test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon against one of its own antiquated weather satellites raised the stakes in the ongoing battle between the U.S. and China over space supremacy. Indeed, the test proves China has taken another step in its quest to become a military power in space. Joint military exercises with fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states and military exercises designed to simulate assaults on U.S. forces are becoming more difficult for the Bush Administration to ignore.China’s escalating espionage activities in North America are also a matter for concern. Comments made by Chinese defector Chen Yonglin to Australian authorities in Sydney in the summer of 2005 noted that China is engaged in large-scale intelligence activities in the U.S. that have resulted in the country securing large amounts of classified U.S. information. “The U.S. is considered by the Chinese Communist Party as the largest enemy, the major strategic rival. The U.S. occupies a unique place in China’s diplomacy,” noted Yonglin. Two other recent Chinese defectors to Australia have corroborated Chen Yonglin’s story. In addition, China’s ruling communist party continues to pursue the mandatory transfer of highly sophisticated, defense-oriented technologies by foreign companies to Chinese companies as a precursor for access to lucrative domestic markets, posing an even greater danger to U.S. national security. Beijing’s increasing appetite for oil, natural gas, water and minerals, as well as its quest to secure a variety of strategically located foreign assets such as seaports, have complicated Washington’s approach to the China problem. Russia continues to sell sophisticated weapons systems to both Iran and China. President Vladimir Putin’s recent trip to the Middle East to conclude arms contracts with a number of Middle East states, as well as his actions to establish a powerful “gas cartel” demonstrates his overt willingness to undermine Washington’s interests in the region. Under Putin, the nationalization of Russia’s energy, media outlets and mineral industries has continued unabated, military ties to Central Asia countries has accelerated, assassinations of political adversaries have become commonplace and the modernization of the country’s military has been given priority status. This week, an assertive President Vladimir Putin threatened to halt Russia's compliance with the 1990 Treaty for Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), one of the key agreements that helped end the decades long Cold War stand-off between NATO and the Soviet bloc. For his part, Iran’s nuclear-obsessed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has threatened Israel with annihilation several times over the past year and continues to fund Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria’s terrorist sympathizer President Bashar al-Assad. Ahmandinejad recently added the U.S. and Britain to his list of countries for destruction, saying both countries will be “imminently destroyed.” Last month’s British hostage crisis and his inflammatory comments this week concerning the 1980 American hostage crisis where he stated God helped Iran “clobber Iran’s enemies” have only added to Ahmadinejad’s reputation as a confrontational and unstable leader.What does it all mean? The U.S. no longer finds itself in a bi-polar world with the Soviet Union as its primary enemy. No, today the U.S. finds itself in a world of multiple enemies. This means the prospect for a more devastating and widespread global conflict is greater than ever. But instead of mustering the strength needed to confront this new Axis of Evil and a growing number of subordinate countries, Washington has become fractured, demonstrating an unwillingness to “go the distance” in Iraq and showing an inability to respond with a clear foreign policy. Proposed negotiations with tyrants in Syria and Iran are viewed by Washington’s enemies not as a symbol of leadership or strength, but as a sign of weakness during a time of great geostrategic importance. There is an underlying current of unrest today defined by new geopolitical realities which the new Axis of Evil embodies. Under this still developing paradigm, successful asymmetrical warfare, not a direct confrontation on the battlefield, is the immediate goal. But the gradual decline in power and influence of the world’s only legitimate superpower – the U.S. – has caught the attention of Tehran, Beijing and Moscow. As the U.S. becomes weakened by a barrage of coordinated, intense attacks on its economic, political and military infrastructure – and the Axis of Evil becomes stronger - the likelihood of a direct confrontation with one or more of these countries at some point in the future will grow. Will America be prepared for its biggest challenge?Fred Stakelbeck is a Senior Asia Fellow with Washington-based Center for Security Policy. He is an expert on the economic and national security implications for the U.S. of China's emerging regional and global strategic influence. Comments can be forwarded to fstakelbeck@centerforsecuritypolicy.org.

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Bill MurrayApr 28th, 2007 - 08:06:05

Your document is an excellent example of the epitome of irrational conclusions...

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brianMay 20th, 2007 - 07:45:14

China, Russia and Iran are all joining to stop american Zionists from threatening the rest of the world.
America britain and israel are the real axis of evil and since the UN is slow to stop them the big players have to get together and stop them from starting any more wars

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tonny from belgiumMay 22nd, 2007 - 08:49:45

Does nobody in the USA ever get bored of so called experts on international affairs ?Most of these guys have no expertise at all but are just propaganda editors from neocon thinkthanks ,inventing whatever treath is necessary for their commanders behind the curtains .
One example is the lack of any logics when citing China as the biggest challenger of the USA .We are made to believe that China is out to destroy the West ?In what accounts ?DEfectors ?That is the same kind of people telling us that Iraq had the capability to hit Washington with nuclear missiles or other weapons of mass destruction.One should know that defectors have their own reason to tell whatever serves them .So keep a critical eye on that kind of arguments .Furthermore China is presented as a potential danger because it destroyed one of it's own sattelites .Now tell me what trhe USA would do if the sky over it was covered with Chinese spy sattelites ?Nothing ?Oh I dont think so .THe whole logic of this article is peppered with the logic that whoever dares to protest and challenge the world hegemony of the US is a treath .Not in my opinion .Nowadays the world is out of balance ,the USA is the biggest military spender and so it would be illogical for China or any other country to sit on it(s ass and do nothing at all.Then they would be subjected to bullying and arrogance .Like the installing of missiles on the borders of Russia as presented by Condoleeza Rice recntly .Remember whet Kennedy did during the Cuba crisis.Now tell me why should Putin behave any differently .
But you will not find this kind kind of logic in the article .THe so called expert is just another biased neocon crony getting his orders from the armament industry always on the lookout for an extra buck .

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NoharnessMay 22nd, 2007 - 12:06:28

RE: 'Does nobody in the USA ever get bored of so called experts on international affairs?'

Certainly we do, Tonny, but I would remind you that this is not a site hosted in the United States and there are no Americans, as far as I know, making editorial decisions for M&C. Most Americans eyes glaze over when any of these guys start talking or writing, whether they be left-handed wingnuts or right-handed wingnuts.

RE:'Most of these guys have no expertise at all but are just propaganda editors from neocon thinkthanks ,inventing whatever treath is necessary for their commanders behind the curtains.'

Okay, Tonny. We understand you do not like the Neo-Conservatives, but here is a question for you. Do you know who and what the dreaded 'neocons' are? Judging from your posts you do not.

RE: 'One example is the lack of any logics when citing China as the biggest challenger of the USA .We are made to believe that China is out to destroy the West ?In what accounts ?DEfectors ?'

You should try reading the Chinese papers once in a while, Tonny. They do publish English language versions of them on the web. You might also give listening to what Chinese leadership says and watch what they do from time to time. I noticed that you do not mention this from the article:

'In addition, China’s ruling communist party continues to pursue the mandatory transfer of highly sophisticated, defense-oriented technologies by foreign companies to Chinese companies as a precursor for access to lucrative domestic markets, posing an even greater danger to U.S. national security.'

This, of course, says more about American failings than it does about Chinese successes. We really are trading our heritage for a mess of pottage here.

RE:'That is the same kind of people telling us that Iraq had the capability to hit Washington with nuclear missiles or other weapons of mass destruction.One should know that defectors have their own reason to tell whatever serves them .So keep a critical eye on that kind of arguments.'

Indeed you are correct. Human intelligence is always tricky and one should always be aware that a defector will NECESSARILY have a strongly biased view of his or her former government.

RE: 'Furthermore China is presented as a potential danger because it destroyed one of it's own sattelites .Now tell me what trhe USA would do if the sky over it was covered with Chinese spy sattelites ?Nothing ?Oh I dont think so .'

Here your thoughts are in complete error. We expect to be spied upon. We are spied upon constantly. It is old news. The Soviet Union spied upon us constantly with every means available to it. We did little or nothing to prevent it. We have done little or nothing to stop the Chinese from spying on us and are unlikely to do so anytime soon.

RE: 'THe whole logic of this article is peppered with the logic that whoever dares to protest and challenge the world hegemony of the US is a treath .Not in my opinion .'

I can't quite see how the United States possesses a 'hegemony' over the entire globe, but anyone or anything that works to the detriment of American Ideals is going to be seen as a threat by us. Which is why, I suppose, you define the US as a threat. We are doubtlessly a threat to your ideals.

RE:' Nowadays the world is out of balance ,the USA is the biggest military spender ...'

And whose fault is that, Tonny?

Re:'...and so it would be illogical for China or any other country to sit on it(s ass and do nothing at all.'

You are, of course, correct on this point. It would be unreasonable of us to expect the Chinese to sit on their asses and refrain from conquering all of Asia by one means or another. They once held all of Asia in thrall and they intend to do so once again.

RE:'Then they would be subjected to bullying and arrogance .Like the installing of missiles on the borders of Russia as presented by Condoleeza Rice recntly .Remember whet Kennedy did during the Cuba crisis.Now tell me why should Putin behave any differently .'

Here you have a valid complaint and I agree with you. We should NOT be installing those missiles along the Russian border, nor should we be looking after European defense needs. That is a European burden and the Europeans should be toting it, not us. By crowding the Russians, we have pushed them over into the Chinese camp.

RE: 'But you will not find this kind kind of logic in the article .THe so called expert is just another biased neocon crony getting his orders from the armament industry always on the lookout for an extra buck .'

Wrong again. Nearly all of them are Reagen Era Conservatives and there are huge differences between the them and the so-called 'Neo-Conservatives.'

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EndlessMay 22nd, 2007 - 16:33:41

All we need now is for England and Ireland to start up again, and we'll have something for everyone all around the world!!

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