Obama's change is more than rhetoric in Iowa

Jan 4, 2008, 11:33 GMT

Campaign buttons showing support for Illinois Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama at a caucus night rally at Hy-Vee Hall in Des Moines, Iowa, USA 03 January 2008. Senator Barack Obama topped Democratic presidential contenders as presumed frontrunner Hillary Clinton was beaten into third place Thursday night in Iowa. EPA/MICHAL CZERWONKA

Washington - Just three years ago, Barack Obama was a big- city lawyer with an unremarkable record as a state legislator from Chicago.

Now, he has humbled the frontrunning establishment candidate in the first contest of the 2008 presidential nominating process.

Lofty talk about change and hope fuelled Obama's meteoric rise, not unlike many anti-establishment underdogs who have pulled surprises before him in the Iowa caucuses.

What was new about the outcome of Thursday's vote was not Obama's rhetoric but the breakthrough victory by an African-American candidate in a rural, overwhelmingly white farm state.

'On this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do,' Obama, his smooth voice raspy from round-the-clock campaigning, told supporters rallying in Des Moines, Iowa. 'You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what America can do in this new year 2008.'

Obama still faces former first lady Hillary Clinton's political machine and campaign war chest on Tuesday in the New Hampshire primary and three other states later this month before the so-called Mega Tuesday on February 5, when more than 20 of the most populous states hold primaries that are likely to decide the centre-left Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Clinton, a US senator from New York, finished with 29.47 per cent of Iowa delegates, a humiliating third place. Former senator John Edwards edged into second place with 29.75 per cent, perhaps enough to keep his effort alive but not enough to invigorate his campaign.

Obama was elected to the US Senate from Illinois only in 2004 and quickly rose to national prominence. But after nearly a year on the presidential campaign trail, Obama has proven himself as not just a legitimate contender but a real and formidable threat to Clinton.

If he can capitalize on his momentum in New Hampshire, where the most recent opinion poll showed him trailing Clinton by 34 per cent to 30 per cent among likely Democratic voters, Obama could become a juggernaut.

On the centre-right Republican side, Mike Huckabee fits the mold of past winners in Iowa. The Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor caught an updraft from religious conservatives who have been dissatisfied with the top contenders in the Republican Party and sailed to victory Thursday night.

He won 34 per cent of the vote, churning past former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who was once favoured in Iowa but had to settle for second place with 25 per cent.

Romney has the deep pockets to continue waging his campaign nationwide, but New Hampshire could be decisive. Arizona Senator John McCain and former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee were in a dead heat for third place at 13 per cent in Iowa, and both will need to make an impact in New Hampshire to survive.

Every four years Iowa and New Hampshire are showered with attention as the first states to elect their preferred candidates, but one Republican has been notably absent this time around. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani has focussed his energy on later and bigger states - gambling that early successes will not give rivals enough momentum to overcome his lead in national polls.

In an interview on CNN, Huckabee compared his victory with Obama's.

'Americans are clearly saying, 'We want change. We want to give new people a chance to run this country,'' he said.

With the Republican candidates rarely mentioning their unpopular party leader, President George W Bush, Huckabee is an anti- establishment candidate in his own right who oddly represents a force for change within the incumbent party.

With very little money or campaign infrastructure, Huckabee may lack the organization on the ground in New Hampshire and other upcoming states to capitalize on his Iowa breakthrough. But he continued to sound a conservative populist message.

'Now we've got a long journey ahead of us,' Huckabee told supporters at a victory rally. 'If this were a marathon, we've only run half of it. But we've run it well, and now it's on to New Hampshire and then to the rest of the country.'