US Features
Swing states shifting to Obama, but undecideds remain
By Chris Cermak Oct 22, 2008, 2:59 GMT
A file picture dated 16 October 2008 shows US Republican candidate for President John McCain delivering remarks during a rally in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, USA. EPA/SHAWN THEW
Washington - As a passionate, divisive, 20-month US election enters its final two weeks, Cara Tobias-Ingram remains one of the undecided voters who could determine whether Barack Obama or John McCain make it into the White House.
Economically conservative but socially liberal, Tobias-Ingram finds every US election hard to gauge. Her husband sits firmly in Republican McCain's camp. Her two sisters vouch for Democratic nominee Obama.
Tobias-Ingram, a native of Portland, Oregon, herself voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 but President George W Bush in 2004.
'I know, it's just mindboggling to understand,' said Tobias-Ingram of her indecision, during a McCain campaign rally in Woodbridge, Virginia. 'I empathize with both positions.'
She is what everybody in the late frenzy of the campaign calls a swing voter, and she's not alone.
Opinion polls have given Obama a clear edge in recent weeks over McCain, attributed largely to the debate shifting to the faltering US economy and domestic issues that tend to favour Democrats, especially with a Republican president wallowing in disapproval after nearly eight years in office.
But the remaining undecided voters are part of the reason Obama still has trouble topping 50 per cent. An average of all national polls compiled by realclearpolitics.com on Tuesday gave Obama 49.3 per cent to McCain's 44.1 per cent.
Independent-minded voters like Tobias-Ingram are exactly where both campaigns will be focussing their efforts in the last two weeks.
To narrow it further, all attention will be on the unconvinced in battleground states, which hold the keys to victory given the US' unique, winner-take-all electoral system. Win a state by just one vote, and a candidate still gets all of its electoral college votes, making the most closely divided states the biggest prizes in any election.
The trend currently favours Obama in many of the usual suspects. Polls put Obama ahead - though not by much - in most of the major swing states that helped Bush eke out victory in 2000 and 2004, including Florida, Ohio and Missouri.
Meanwhile, Obama has maintained a strong edge in swing states that voted for Democrat John Kerry in 2004, including Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The electoral map has shifted significantly since 2004. The centre-left Democrats have made inroads in a number of recently Republican regions, including Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina and Western strongholds including Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
The result: In the decisive electoral college, where states are weighted by population, Obama already has enough states leaning in his favour to capture the White House if the results bear out on election day, according to realclearpolitics.com.
'Since (McCain) is clearly behind nationally and in virtually all of the battleground states, he's still looking for a game changer,' said Thomas Mann, an elections scholar and senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, a centre-left think tank.
The shift toward the Democrats is fueled by a combination of factors. Some of it is because of national issues. Polls across the country favour Obama on the economy, which has leapfrogged all other factors in the public consciousness since last month's meltdown of financial markets.
The already sluggish economy, impatience with the Iraq war and disaffection for Bush have all made it a tough climate for McCain.
Since the intra-party nomination process, which started in January, new voter registrations have disproportionately boosted Democrats, while Obama's record-shattering campaign fundraising has allowed him to blanket swing states with television advertising.
There are more localized reasons for the shift, too, the result of changing demographics.
Western mountain states, for example, have witnessed an influx of both minority Hispanic voters and left-leaning white college graduates, two key voting groups that tend to favour Democrats. The proportion of working-class voters who trend Republican has declined, according to a Brookings Institution analysis.
Virginia, which hasn't by won by the Democratic presidential nominee since 1964, has found less conservative newcomers moving into its northern region just outside the US capital Washington. Obama now leads the state by an average of 8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, working-class voters in the so-called Rust Belt, an area hit hard by declining heavy industry, including Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, have borne the brunt of a slowing economy, drawing them to Obama's simple message of change from the Bush administration.
With two weeks left, McCain, Obama, their running mates and allies will be campaigning furiously across swing states. Early voting already began this week in several important states including Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida. More than 30 per cent of voters may have already cast their ballots by November 4.
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This Aint Over... Don't let them tell you it is!
---------------------------------------------------------------
A poll by the Military Times newspaper group suggests that there is overwhelming support for John McCain among U.S. troops in every branch of the armed forces by a nearly 3-1 margin.
According to the poll, 68 percent of active-duty and retired servicemen and women support McCain, while 23 percent support Barack Obama. The numbers are nearly identical among officers and enlisted troops.
The Military Times, which publishes the Army Times, Navy Times, Marine Corps Times and Air Force Times, polled 80,000 subscribers from Sept 22 to Sept. 29. The non-scientific survey gathered 4,300 respondents -- all of them registered and eligible to vote.
A racial divide was immediately evident among the respondents. Nearly eight in 10 black servicemembers chose Obama, while McCain captured 76 percent of white voters and 63 percent of Hispanic voters....
U.S. troops also said in the poll that they prefer McCain to handle the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- 74 percent said McCain would perform better, while just 19 percent said Obama would.
Four years ago the Iraq War was the single most important issue on which the military voted. But the war now ranks third in importance to these voters. The most important issue among the respondents was character (42 percent), followed by the economy (25 percent) and the Iraq War (16 percent)....
Ohio: McCain is actually looking pretty good.
I continue to hear from my source on the ground in Ohio, who is seeing results for McCain that are surprisingly good. He puts it, “in a key bellweather section of Ohio, McCain continues to show internals that are exceeding the national pollsters’ results. This portends a potentially larger McCain victory in Ohio than Bush had in 2004.”
As for those national pollsters, note that Fox News/Rasmussen puts McCain up 2, NBC/Mason-Dixon puts McCain up 1 and Rasmussen had it a tie last week. My guy on the ground thinks this might mean that the internal polling is a leading indicator, and he’s noting that if McCain does as well among the key demographics in neighboring Pennsylvania as he is in Ohio, then the Democrats ought to be sweating about that state.
He goes on to note that though Pennsylvania is a a bit more blue than Ohio, the Dems have given voters there plenty of reasons to vote Republican this year; Murtha’s racist/rednecks, Obama’s bitter-clingers, and don’t forget (the NRA hasn’t) Obama’s really popular gun ban and right-to-carry ban proposals.
Not a bit ashamed selling the USA to the banks from Wall Street,McCaib has now asked Russia to contribute too the campaign funding for the republicans .The Un representative ,the highest ranking diplomat wved a letter from the GOP begging for mony from the Kremlin.No doubt that McCain is the manchurian candidate .This letter proves it;the GOP will hand over the USA to Putn after which hordes of Russians will invade Des Moines,Tulsa,Rapid City and a lot of other cities .Be afraid,be very afraid ,these russian hordes on their horses will come to ravish your virgins,torch your churches,drink your booze,they will do all that and much more.The request for money from the GOP to the russians proves that,and muh more ...
If you believe that,you'll have no trouble believing the BS spread by above posters .If only it weren't so tragic .
When will the GOP concentrate on their own program (if they have one )
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch.
WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party.
NOBODY will make a second rate pilot who got his azz shot down, and his face kicked in, not to mention his arm broken, than his azz rammed with a bamboo pole president of the United States.
Here we don't like ugly people who make arm movements like robots and who walks like he has something stuck up his azz.
Than waazz up with the ugly yellow teeth.
So forget it McCain will lose on ugliness alone.
Where all of you fearful, fearful neocons are trashing Obama and 'the race ain't over yet' BS (bad grammar seems to be part and parcel of neocons), the REAL issue here is race. Small minded, again, FEARFUL, wonder bread people who are afraid of difference, refuse to see similarities, bad mouth what you DON'T UNDERSTAND - because you are far too stupid to even try to wrap your mind around what's happening in this 'glorious' country of ours.
Read this and perhaps, just perhaps, you might get a better picture, you close minded, petty small people.
WHAT IF -
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin, what if things were switched around?
What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage,
including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
YEAH - LIKE THAT WOULD EVER HAPPEN !
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his
graduating class? YEAH - THAT'S WHERE MCCAIN FINISHED IN HIS GRADUATING CLASS (now I know the real reason you like him so much, he's stupid)!!
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee? WELL, YOU CAN FORGET ABOUT THIS ONE, BECAUSE OBAMA WOULD NOT BE WHERE HE IS NOW. HE COULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN THIS FAR!!
What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a
severe disfiguring car accident, when she no longer measured up to his standards?
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long
afffair while he was still married? THAT'S RIGHT YOU CONSERVATIVE, SELF RIGHTOUS RELIGIOUS ZEALOTS - HE DID THAT -
Obama WILL win this race - regardless of his 'race'. because it's about time this country had a chance to get back into the GLOBAL problems, not just our problems. Intelligent, free thinking people know this. McCain would rather be feared than loved. Is THIS what your bible advocates??
Palin would push the button on devastation before talking.
McCain and Palin - we should be very VERY afraid.
And what about if McCain keels over and can't stay in office. You want that hick talking, hillbilly to be running this country? MY GOD !!
She's no 'maverick'. They've given that great tv show a horrible slam
by using that word, over and over, ad nauseum. Joe the Plumber?? who cares?? McCain just can't stand up and say what he'll do. You're buying into his negative ad campaigns which makes the neocons or even the swing voters who go that way, as dispicable as he is. 4 years of those huge jowls flapping will see us as the laughing stock (more so than now) of this planet the an entire world calls home, NOT JUST THIS COUNTRY.
WAKE UP!! old man, dim witted tweety bird who's husband wanted Alaska to secede from the US. Yeah, this is a REAL patriot.
If you closed your eyes, did NOT see color of skin, and actually LISTENED to what was being said, you would actually know what I'm saying here.
Excellent post!! This one should be repeated on every article about this race!
Where all of you fearful, fearful neocons are trashing Obama and 'the race ain't over yet' BS (bad grammar seems to be part and parcel of neocons), the REAL issue here is race.
NO. The REAL ISSUE IS THAT HE IS A LYING SOCIALIST WITH 143 DAYS EXPERIENCE. It is just pathetic that you would fall back on calling a principled opposition to this man 'racism'. Vote for Obama or you are a racist.
YOU are the only person on this forum who has ADMITTED that they are voting against someone because they are white yet you have the audacity to call other people racists?
'because you are far too stupid to even try to wrap your mind around what's happening in this 'glorious' country of ours.'
This is a glorious country, your snark quotes around the word speak to the contempt that you have been conditioned to have for it.
WHAT IF -
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin, what if things were switched around?
Well I JUST LOVE THAT SCENARIO.
'What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage,
including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?'
Instead we got his 2 children paraded out. WHAT IF John McCain had attended a racist church for 20 years? What if he was friends with David Duke or the head of the Klu Klux Clan? Obama has surrounded himself with people who HATE white people and and you have the audacity to call people who oppose that 'Racist'? You are such an idiot.
'What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
YEAH - LIKE THAT WOULD EVER HAPPEN !'
What if Obama had actually fought for the USA? YEAH - LIKE THAT WOULD EVER HAPPEN !
'What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his
graduating class?'
What if Obama had demonstrated his loyalty and allegiance to the USA by refusing to be sent home to give the Vietnamese a propaganda victory and instead endured 5 and a half years of hell?
'What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee[sic]?'
So that is an issue and Obama's cultivation of anti American terrorists isn't?
'What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a
severe disfiguring car accident, when she no longer measured up to his standards?'
That isn't why they broke up. What if McCain had lied about his religious upbringing?
'What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long
afffair[sic] while he was still married?'
Separated... they were separated. What if McCain net her in a church that preaches separation of the races and an afrocentric view of the world? What if she wasn't a proud American until her husband started doing well? What if she wasn't qualified on grades or test scores to go to the colleges she went to?
'Obama WILL win this race - regardless of his 'race'.'
I hope to God you are wrong but if not: God help the country then because the disaster Obama will cause that will advance the causes of conservatism far more then McCain could ever hope to.
'because it's about time this country had a chance to get back into the GLOBAL problems, not just our problems.'
By that you mean giving away what little money we have left to 3rd world countries, importing their poverty and surrendering our sovereignty to the UN. Obama will drag us down in to the dirt.
'Intelligent, free thinking people know this.'
You are seriously none of those things.
'McCain would rather be feared than loved.'
Bull.
'Is THIS what your bible advocates??'
'Our' Bible?
'Palin would push the button on devastation before talking.'
'Push the button on devastation'... Please...Obama is planning on tossing our allies to the wolves.
'And what about if McCain keels over and can't stay in office. You want that hick talking, hillbilly to be running this country?'
She has more experience, higher approval ratings and less baggage then Barry Obama does. Not to worry, McCain will be fine for the next 8 years.
'They've given that great tv show a horrible slam
by using that word, over and over, ad nauseum.'
You are just an idiot.
'Joe the Plumber?? who cares??'
People should be able to ask our elected leaders anything without being run through the mud. Obama has shown himself to be a totalitarian thug at heart with his treatment of Joe the plumber.
'McCain just can't stand up and say what he'll do.'
You don't listen.
'4 years of those huge jowls flapping will see us as the laughing stock (more so than now) of this planet the an entire world calls home, NOT JUST THIS COUNTRY.'
As opposed to Obamas huge ears and lying mouth. I want a president of the USA, not the world. You are so insecure and stupid that you will vote for who they tell you not realizing that they don't want the best for this country.
'WAKE UP!! old man, dim witted tweety bird who's husband wanted Alaska to secede from the US. Yeah, this is a REAL patriot.'
No, that's a real lie.
'If you closed your eyes, did NOT see color of skin, and actually LISTENED to what was being said, you would actually know what I'm saying here.'
I have, he is a lying socialist who is unqualified to run the country and who will give away American sovereignty that people have fought and died to get. He is smart, he is quick witted, but he has a lousy character and he uses words just like bill Clinton used to... To leave an impression in the listener that is not what the literal meaning of what he said is... (It depends on what the word 'is', is...)
He has now come out in desparation trying to distance himself from Bush and most of the GOP condemning them all. Well, they are now falling away from him as fast as they can. He voted with Bush 90% of the time - according to his own publicity - so that's just not gonna fly. Now Palin is openly going against some of his policies, probably wanting to cement a future in Washington away from a failing McCain campaign; although one she has so strongly helped go down the drain. Poor John!
' Well, they are now falling away from him as fast as they can.'
???
' He voted with Bush 90% of the time '
Bush isn't in the senate. He doesn't have a vote.
' Now Palin is openly going against some of his policies, ''
???
If you'd crawl out from under your rock once in a while, maybe you'd know what's going on! McCain is in a news report saying he voted for Bush's policies 90% of the time, plus he has put out a news flash lambasting Bush and the GOP, while top Republicans are on record removing their support from him........and were you aware there is an election coming up, fall is here, and Christmas is only a few months away???
News Flash......
26 U.S. newspapers that backed Bush in 2004 now support Obama......
According to some of her speeches at rallies, Palin is voicing a little opposition to some of McCain's positions - subtle to say the least, but certainly there. Surprised that the Grand Old Party doesn't pick up on it and reign her in or are they ready to reverse the roles?
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Don't let anyone tell you it's over.Oct 22nd, 2008 - 07:01:20
FOX News/Rasmussen Reports state polling this week shows a slightly improved situation for John McCain compared to a week ago...
The biggest change is found in Florida where the race is now essentially even with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 48 percent. A week ago, Obama was up by five percentage points and the week before he held a seven-point lead. The current polling shows McCain's support at its highest level since mid-September.
McCain also moved slightly ahead again in Ohio with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage over Obama. A week ago, those numbers were reversed and Obama had the two-point advantage. In Florida, the current poll shows McCain at his highest level of support since mid-September.
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