US News
Scientists predicting active Atlantic hurricane season
Apr 3, 2007, 16:23 GMT
Washington - US climate researchers are predicting a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic this year despite an unusual lull in activity in 2006, according to the latest forecast released Tuesday.
The Colorado State University forecast predicted nine hurricanes for the June 1 to November 30 season, of which five were expected to become major storms. A total of 17 named storms were forecast.
The group said there was a 75-per-cent likelihood that there would be at least one severe hurricane - classified as category three or above - hitting the US in the upcoming season.
2006 saw no hurricanes reach the US mainland. There were a total of 10 named storms, five hurricanes and two severe hurricanes that developed in the Atlantic.
That followed a record year in 2005 of 27 named storms and seven severe hurricanes, including Hurricane Katrina which ravaged the US Gulf Coast and flooded New Orleans.
'We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons,' Phil Klotzbach, part of the university's forecast team, said in a statement.
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-AgenturCOMMENT
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Older Talkback
page: 1
They blew it last year. If they can't get a forecast right six months from now, how are we supposed to believe temperature forecasts for the next 100 years. Global warming is a fraud. Just look at the northeast US right now. Spring, what spring?
Anyone who had taken the trouble to research the global warming predictions would have realised that around the general warming trend, there will be wide (and getting wider) variations. So there isn't any Spring in one place - compare that with no ice around Canada so all the new born seals (which need ice floes for the first few weeks of life) are drowning. One is colder the other is hotter - but that doesn't mean the carefully researched predictions are wrong
Forecasts for particular events and times are an inexact science, but the underlying trend is robust. Try and open up your mind to the realities - from your comments I suspect you are at an early embryo stage - no doubt joined up writing is still something of a challenge
They did blow it last year. And, like always, no one is there to make them pay the tab.
Journalism operates on one golden rule: no one remembers today what you said yesterday.
Just like they predicted global cooling in 1975, due to pollution.
They will read 19 reports with negative outcomes, and publish the crap out of the one that is positive.
Most of us are in the wrong business. Weather forcasters can be wrong 99.9% of the time and just shrug off their bad forcasts with many different reasons. What other profession can you be that wrong and keep your job. Maybe politics?????
page: 1
DJBocaApr 3rd, 2007 - 17:09:04
Of course they say it will be active! They wouldn't have jobs if they said it was going to be quiet. People would stop listening to them if all was well. These people act in the same fashion as insurance salespeople... 'of course you need the insurance... look at all the horrors that can happen.'
So, of course the next season will be very active. And if its not, they'll come up with some atmospheric effect (El Nino) or environmental impact (volcano in booga-booga land) that will explain why they were so wrong... 'but if not for that (fill in the blank), we would have been spot on!'
Just tell us you don't know but you think it will be active. Don't use words like 'very much more active'... you don't know. We understand its an inexact science in this respect, so keep your words inexact. We need you to be exact on the path, not the prediction of how many.
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