US News
US forecasts above-normal 2007 hurricane season
Aug 9, 2007, 14:27 GMT
Washington - US scientists Thursday forecast a worse-than- usual 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, including three to five major storms.
US government forecasters see an 85-per-cent chance of an 'above- normal season,' with 13-16 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.
A normal year brings six hurricanes, including two major ones, the agency said.
Since the season began June 1, there have been three Atlantic named storms, slightly above average, NOAA said. The hurricane season peaks in August through October and ends November 30.
The latest update was largely in line with NOAA's initial 2007 forecast in May.
'The development of key climate factors through early August has increased the confidence of an above-normal season,' the agency said Thursday.
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-AgenturCOMMENT
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Older Talkback
page: 1
Michael is right... very dodgy the predictions.... by the time the season comes - someone has predicted every outcome.
One Note - there is another profession that gets paid for being wrong - Doctors!
I also agree with Michael! They will taylor their predictions as the season progresses to always be right. Some job. I wonder.... do you think they work for the president????
If you read carefully you'll see that a lot of news outlets are pushing the issue that the prediction has been lowered - but by not a lot; they are making it seem like now a mild season is predicted. Its still more than average. Very misleading.
Has anyone noticed that the media outlets have been doing their best to scare us to death with lightning here of late? News editors are definitely carrying the sensationalism well over the mark. At least they have reduced the amount of time they spend playing at being a blatherskite.
this is all for exxon
And the cause is a cooler than normal atlantic, imagine that!...Standby there will be a global warming reduces hurricane pt 2 study released soon.
Aug 07 - 'The Eisriesenwelt ice caves at Werfen near the Austrian city of Salzburg are said to be the largest in the world.
'The ice in the Eisriesenwelt ('World of the Ice Giants') has actually grown by a third since the 1920s.
'And there has been a marked increase in the growth of ice over the past 15 to 20 years.
'Warmer temperatures on top of the mountains may be helping the formations to develop earlier than usual.
'The ice is formed by water seeping through crevices into the freezing caverns below.
'The sooner the snow melts, the earlier water starts dripping into the caves.
'One of the first ice structures you see after entering the cave did not exist 10 years ago.
'The huge pillar was formed by tiny drops of melted snow water trickling through fissures in the rock.
'Even in the height of summer, temperatures in the caves usually stay below freezing - something that surprises many visitors.'
Amazing, isn’t it. If glaciers grow, it’s global warming.
If glaciers retreat, it’s global warming.
Now, if ice caves shrink, it’s global warming.
And if ice caves grow? It’s global warming of course.
I guess all i can say to this is Florida is obviously going to get a VERY bad hurricane eventually and its so much better to be prepared that way we can all sta y as safe as possible. So stop complaining unless ur doing something to save the ozone layer like recycling unsing a hybri car or solar power heating stuff. So if the ozone layer would slow down from ripping apart the oceans would be cooler and the hurricanes would have less gas. We wouldnt have to worry AS much aand the meteorologist could be more precise. And being a meterologist is SO much harder then you think. They dont just sit there rolling dice. The have to put out instruments to measure wind pressure barnomic pressure and about 40 other things. Then they have to take that data analize it and organize it and then analize it again. About an 8 hour process just to predict a weeks forcast. And then they have to make power points out of the data to produce it to us. So you can complaini if your doing something to prevent it but otherwise please keep it to yourself. This from a 15 year old who obviously takes the time to appreciate things.
To Mark,
Too bad you do not take the time for proper grammar and spelling.
The truth is we're screwed, so get ready, mother nature's pissed.
The comments above are typical of the american belief that the World actually cares about their weather. The USA covers just 6% of the Earth's surface and americans have the unfortunate tendency to believe that whatever happens in american weather must apply to the rest of the world.
So you get a few hurricans and they kill a few people - it hardly compares with the millions affected by weather in manmy other parts of the world
The same happens in Climate Change debates - 'the weather in america is no different to times in the past' so Climate Change isn't happening.
What utter rubbish - your little bit of the world may not be changing, but many other areas are
You are so ignorant you can't even interpret the facts you are presenting -
There is extra melt water because the surface of the Earth is warming. This percolates through to the caves below (which remain below freezing, because it takes a long time for heat to penetrate) where the water freezes. This creates the ice
More warming = extra water = more ice below ground.
PS. The above is, of course, addressed to 'More' on the previous page.
Peter's comments above are excellent and put into perspective the delusions of grandeur the yanks suffer from
For some independent data, go to - cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming - preceded by the usual 3w's (I have to do it this way, as normal full adresses are blocked in these pages)
That is what they said for 2006..and nothing happened. They cannot predict the weather.
www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com
RE:'The comments above are typical of the american belief that the World actually cares about their weather. The USA covers just 6% of the Earth's surface and americans have the unfortunate tendency to believe that whatever happens in american weather must apply to the rest of the world.
So you get a few hurricans and they kill a few people - it hardly compares with the millions affected by weather in manmy other parts of the world
The same happens in Climate Change debates - 'the weather in america is no different to times in the past' so Climate Change isn't happening.
What utter rubbish - your little bit of the world may not be changing, but many other areas are'
Hmm, you have a point. Your weather has been behaving rather like ours during the last few years. Welcome to the party, Peter.
This seasonal hurricane predicting has been going on for decades and it's been incorrect the vast majority of years. Every year we have 'updates' to the predictions because the predictions aren't coming true. So we get a 'new and refined' prediction that's absolute eyewash too. If the predictions had any validity, in the first place, there would be no need for updates and revisions.
It is obvious we do not yet have the proper technology, knowledge and know-how to make hurricane predictions on such a long range. All this is doing is burning up taxpayer's money, making certain weather related jobs are secure, giving the public a false sense of urgency and it eventually creates apathy.
What this predicting actually is about is this. It enhance the commercial world. It encourages people to continuously go out and stockpile for emergencies. The retail world loves it because it they make monies they normally would not generate. Our government loves it because it makes the economy numbers look better than they should be looking. It generates jobs. It generates monies for local, state and federal government bodies through taxes on all those goods we're purchasing.
It's also about the federal government continuously scaring lower government bodies into over preparing for possible emergencies so their own butt won't be blamed for poor emergency response again.
Most importantly, for the weather service, it's their way of telling the government they need more funds to upgrade their already over priced weather system.
It's all about money. Yours and mine. We're the slaves they are extracting it from. So, they brainwash us with the impending doom stories to get our attention and support rather than our flak. Sadly, the American people fall for it and keep opening their wallet.
Mark
The Ozone layer has nothing to do with global warming. Depleted ozone only leads to more sunscreen use, not hurrican preparation.
BTW, last year was supposed to be the worst season yet. Huge store was supposed to hit the Northeast, remember? Global warming causing ginormous hurricans, like Katrina (which was only a category 3, and not above average). So I guess since we're having less hurricanes, that must mean global warming is slowing down. Yay go humans!
As I said earlier the weather in the US is a minor blip within world terms - whether you have more or less hurricanes and/or forecast the number correctly has very little significance except for the minor part of the globe called america.
The number of hurricanes in the 6% of the world called america also has very little significance in terms of global warming
This weather grap is so pepole well watch the weather channel.that's it....
page: 1
Micheal, Central FloridaAug 9th, 2007 - 15:14:51
Blah blah blah blah blah....First they predicted we are going to have a lot of hurricanes. Next, they revised it and said we are going to have a mild season. Now we are back to having an active hurricane season. Man, where do I get a weather job. It is the only industry I know of where you get paid money for being 50% wrong all the time.
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