US News
US Intel says Iran has no nukes
By M&C US News Dec 3, 2007, 20:13 GMT
US Vice President Dick Cheney EPA/EVAN F. SISLEY / POOL
U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the threat of international sanctions has worked in making Iran step off its pursuit of the bomb.
The Los Angeles Times reports that this conclusion was the key finding of a long-awaited intelligence report in which U.S. spy agencies retreated from earlier assessments that were more hard-line in their view of Iran's nuclear ambitions and intentions.
The Time sspeculates that the new document "is likely to generate fierce new debate within the U.S. government, challenging the positions of officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, who have urged taking a hard line against Tehran."
The report also concludes that Iran "does not currently have a nuclear weapon," and that the country is unlikely to be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb before 2009 at the earliest.
The findings were included in a National Intelligence Estimate titled "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" that represents a consensus view of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.
"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," the report says. "We also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."
The Times cites that the new intelligence and emerging evidence "has forced analysts to alter their views on Iran's intentions and capabilities. The changes portray Iran as more responsive to international pressure than previously thought."
"Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military cost," the report concludes. Overall, the report notes that Iran "is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005."
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Older Talkback
page: 1
They are just working the spin on this new information. This administration does not need anything as trivial as 'facts'. Getting close to a year to be rid of these complete and total failures.
..Iran has over 100 nuclear research facilities
Iran allegedly has over 3000(?) enrichment centrifuges....(they only produce bomb material)
Iran has no real nuclear electrical power program to speak of
No wonder Cheney isn't smiling...
Other fabulous US intel coups:
Bombing of Chinese Embassy in Romania due to complete lack of intel
US missile gap of the 60's
Pearl Harbor
Bay of Pigs
Aldrich Ames
Oh yeah, they don't want a bomb....
Under the dumbest thing I have ever heard.
'Iran allegedly has over 3000(?) enrichment centrifuges....(they only produce bomb material)'
Iran has plans for 3000. they currently have only 2 operating centifuges. They are of very poor design and low quality. They probably don't even work. Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium so that it can be used as fuel in a reactor. Due to heavy metal contamnination, the uranium Iran possesses cannot be enriched beyond 20% without further special prosessing in Russia China, or the US. Far, far below the 98% needed. As a matter of fact Iran will have a very difficult time getting it to the 3% needed for use as reactor fuel.
If you want to stop nuclear proliferation, take away the 200 nukes that Israel has built with US technology, guidance and raw materials. So, Mr. know-it-all, chew on that for a while. Stop spreading the Bush/Cheney lies.
For clarification, I recommend Wikipedia on ''nuclear enrichment''.
Fact is, that enrichment for fuel rods in reactors requires U235 at an enrichment level of 3.5 to 5%, for which a cascade (installed in a series) of 3,000 centrifuges is needed. A gas, uranium hexaflouride, is routed to this cascade, enriching the remainder at each step more, using centrifugal (center-fleeing) forces -- the principle of a centrifuge, duh!
To make weapons grade uranium, the compound needs to be enriched to roughly 95% U235, but for this enrichment, cascades of 30,000 centrifuges are needed. This early November 2007, IAEA's ElBaradei noted, that Iran had had enormous difficulties in getting the 3,000 centrifuges to work in a cascade, but they succeeded and indeed produced a small amount of 3.5% fuel-rod material.
Bear in mind here, that Iran's first nuclear reactor is still not operational, and has not yet been equipped with nuclear 'fuel' by Russia. The uranium used by Iran is domestically mined, and the Iranians plan to eventually use their own uranium for fuel in their nuclear plant(s), after the initial set of fuel rods supplied by Russia.
Here comes the kicker!
The article states:
'We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program,' the report says. ... end of quote ...
In 2003, Tehran may have been in experimental stages on how to enrich uranium from uranium hexaflouride, made from domestic yellow cake -- but Iran's program certainly could not be called a ''weapons program'' back then, when they barely managed, four years later, to produce a small amount of fuel grade uranium as opposed to weapons grade uranium, that requires a ten- to twenty times larger infrastructure.
The US-backslapping on how well diplomacy and ''pressure'' works, is ludicrous. Iran did suspend its enrichment activities (largely experiments) in 2003, because it was promised by the EU3 (France, Germany and the UK) that it would receive technical assistance, a promise that was wiped off the table by Cheney/Bush and cohorts.
Given, what the IAEA knows about Iran's uranium enrichment program, anyone outside the CIA can also ''judge with high confidence'' that Iran does not have a weapons program. To even hint at such a program having been given up in 2003 is already bullshitting the public, but the administration should be allowed to try to save face, made necessary, because the IAEA did not cave in this time round. In 2003, the IAEA did find traces (for SP4: ''minute parts'') of highly enriched uranium, but it was meanwhile determined that these traces stem from contamination of the Pakistani centrifuges, where they were used in that nation's weapons program.
One last thing, reserved for ''SP4:'':
''Bombing of Chinese Embassy in Romania due to complete lack of intel''
During the Kosovo conflict, the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was bombed by NATO (intentional or not will be eventually found out). Be advised, that Belgrade is the capital of Serbia (back then: Yugoslavia).
Typical information from SP4---'Fox News', 'Rush News'. SP4 gives us information just like this administration gives us information---90% lies- 10% truth.
page: 1
GrerryDec 4th, 2007 - 02:00:30
Cheney looks as if he was just fed a crap sandwich. It looks good on him. More of his lies exposed.
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